QCP: This market rebound may be driven by real spot demand rather than leverage.

On March 24, QCP released its daily market watch, saying that the crypto market saw a modest rally over the weekend, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) breaking through the $85,000 and $2,000 mark, respectively. The recovery appears to have been led by equities, with equity futures showing a strong rally. While recession fears persisted, Powell's cautious remarks at last week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting helped calm investor sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index improved from 32% last week to 45% this week (49% was neutral), reflecting a general easing of risk aversion. A notable bright spot came from the inflow of spot bitcoin ETFs, which bought 8,775 bitcoins (equivalent to $744 million) last week, a significant increase. This marks a clear reversal after several weeks of net outflows, showing early signs that liquidity is starting to flow back into the crypto market. With perpetual open interest (OI) still depressed and funding rates flat, the rally appears to be driven by real spot demand rather than leverage, which is a key difference, as leverage-driven rises tend to fall abruptly when liquidated. "However, despite the renewed ETF momentum and today's continued rally, we remain cautious about the prospect of a sustained breakout to the upside. The tariff escalation, which is scheduled to take effect on April 2, could put pressure on risk assets again. At the same time, the options market reflected a more neutral wait-and-see attitude, with implied volatility tending to decline and risk reversals flattening across maturities, in stark contrast to the more pronounced bearish skew observed a week ago. We will be watching closely to see if this week's recovery will be a repeat of last Monday's price action, when cryptocurrencies rose on Sunday but quickly retreated within 48 hours."