Record sell-off speed of U.S. stocks: Will the recession affect Bitcoin prices?

! The price movement of Bitcoin in recent years is quite similar to that of the U.S. stock market, especially the technology-oriented Nasdaq index and the benchmark S&P 500 index.

Now, as fund managers are executing a historic withdrawal from U.S. stocks, the question arises: is Bitcoin the next victim?

Fund managers are selling U.S. stocks at a record monthly pace

Investors have reduced their investment ratio in U.S. stocks the most in history, dropping 40 percentage points during the period from February to March, according to the latest survey by Bank of America.

This is the strongest monthly decline since the bank began tracking data in 1994. This change, referred to as the "bull market collapse," reflects diminishing confidence in the U.S. economy's exceptionalism and growing concerns about a global recession.

With 69% of the managers surveyed declaring that the peak of the "American exceptionalism" theory has passed, this data indicates a significant shift that could spread to risk assets such as Bitcoin, especially considering the positive correlation that has lasted for 52 weeks between these two asset types.

Bitcoin The 52-week correlation coefficient of Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index | Source: TradingViewMore downside risks for Bitcoin, while the crypto market as a whole grows from investors allocating more cash.

BofA's March survey shows that cash levels ( a classic signal of the search for safe havens ) surged to 4.1% from 3.5% in February, the lowest since 2010.

! Bitcoin Fund managers survey results in March | Source: BofA GlobalAdding to the uncertainty, 55% of fund managers cited a "trade war causing a global recession" as the biggest risk, up from 39% in February, while 19% concerned about inflation forcing the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates — both scenarios could dampen interest in risky assets such as Bitcoin

In contrast, in the list of the busiest transactions from the survey, "Long crypto" still accounts for 9%, coinciding with the launch of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fund in the United States.

Meanwhile, 68% of fund managers predict that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2025, up from 51% last month.

The previous interest rate cuts coincided with the growth of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, something that bettors on Polymarket believe is 100% certain to happen before May.

Bitcoin price hanging in the balance

The price of Bitcoin has decreased by more than 22% after two months of reaching a record high of nearly $110,000 — a price drop that many consider to be a correction in the bull market, indicating that this cryptocurrency may recover in the coming months.

"History shows that Bitcoin often undergoes such corrections during long-term bull runs, and there is no reason to believe this time will be different," said Nick Forster, founder of Derive.

However, he also notes that the next 6 months of BTC depend on the performance of traditional markets (stocks).

Technically, as of March 19, Bitcoin remains above the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA 50-week, with the red wave ) at $77,250.

Weekly BTC Price Chart | Source: TradingViewHistorically, BTC price tends to return to the 50-week EMA after experiencing strong rallies. A decisive break below the wave support level has signaled a bear market in the past, specifically during the correction cycles of 2018 and 2022.

Bitcoin Source: Milkybull Crypto A clear break below the support level of the wave could lead the BTC bears to eye the 200-week EMA (green wave) below $50,000, reflecting the bearish sentiment discussed in the BofA survey.

On the contrary, holding above the 50-week EMA has pushed the price to a new high during the session, similar to what the market witnessed in 2024. If Bitcoin rebounds from the support level of the aforementioned wave, the likelihood of testing the psychological resistance level of 100,000 dollars is very high.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

  • CEO Garlinghouse: The SEC will dismiss the appeal against Ripple.
  • Bitcoin futures 'reduced leverage' wiped out $10 billion in open interest in 2 weeks
  • Why does the price of Bitcoin drop when gold keeps hitting new highs?

Minh Anh

@media only screen and (min-width: 0px) and (min-height: 0px) { div[id^="wrapper-sevio-d89f58f5-7b63-40be-98c0-6b1fd62584fb"] { width:320px; height: 100px; } } @media only screen and (min-width: 728px) and (min-height: 0px) { div[id^="wrapper-sevio-d89f58f5-7b63-40be-98c0-6b1fd62584fb"] { width: 728px; height: 90px; } }

View Original
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
  • Reward
  • Comment
  • Share
Comment
0/400
No comments