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AI Weekly Hot Report (03.07 - 03.14)
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Table of Contents:
1. The general trend of the market
1.1. Market sentiment
This week, the total market capitalization of digital currencies reached $3.579 trillion, down 7.9% month-on-month. Exchange trading volume decreased month-on-month, with BTC volume down 4%. Affected by the Fed's interest rate hike expectations and geopolitical risks, the crypto market as a whole is showing a downward trend. The price of Bitcoin fell to $98,839.87.
According to the Gate.io Fear & Greed Index, today's market sentiment is "panic", and the Fear & Greed Index is 27, indicating that the overall market sentiment is more pessimistic.
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1.2. Macroeconomic impacts
Recent data suggest that the pace of the global economic recovery has slowed and inflationary pressures persist. US CPI rose 6.0% year-on-year in February, higher than expectations of 5.8%, and core CPI rose 5.5% year-on-year, unchanged from expectations. Eurozone preliminary CPI came in at 8.5% y/y in February, higher than expectations of 8.2%. High inflation has exacerbated pressure on major central banks to raise interest rates. According to CME Group, the market is pricing in a 97% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in March, with a 3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in June and September, respectively.
On the production side, the final value of the US manufacturing PMI in February was 47.3, lower than the expected 47.8, and it was in the contraction range for the fourth consecutive month. The final value of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI in February was 48.5, higher than the preliminary value of 48.0 but still in contraction territory. High inflation and weak demand have weighed on the manufacturing sector.
The performance of the job market is relatively solid. The U.S. added 311,000 nonfarm payrolls in February, well above expectations of 205,000. Initial jobless claims came in at 192,000, below expectations of 200,000. The unemployment rate in the eurozone was 6.7% in January, unchanged from the previous value.
Overall, high inflation has put pressure on major central banks to raise interest rates, and weakness in the manufacturing sector has weighed on economic growth. The relatively solid job market may ease concerns about an economic slowdown. The cryptocurrency market may be affected by inflation and interest rate expectations in the short term.
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1.3 Financial Calendar
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This week's focus is on the Fed's interest rate decision, employment data from the UK and Australia, and consumer confidence in the Eurozone and US. These data will affect the direction of global financial markets.
The Fed is on track to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week to a range of 4.75%-5%. The market expects the Fed to signal that the current rate hike cycle is nearing its end. Employment data from the UK and Australia will reflect the state of their labour markets and provide important guidance for the future economic outlook. The Consumer Confidence Index reflects the level of consumer confidence in the economy, which has an impact on future consumer spending.
In addition, the ZEW economic sentiment index in Germany and the euro area, the real estate market index in the United States, and business inventory data are also worth paying attention to, which can reflect the development trend of related fields. Overall, this week's economic data will provide important signals for the market, and investors need to pay close attention.
2. Analysis of capital and price fluctuations
2.1. Price fluctuation analysis
BTC Weekly Volatility: The weekly volatility of BTC is around 3.21% based on the daily closing price of BTC over the past week.
The price of BTC showed a trend of first falling and then rising this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of BTC fell to around $80,000 due to Trump's policies. However, it then stabilized and rebounded at the key support level of $80,000, reaching as high as the resistance level of $88,000. Overall, BTC is up 2.34% for the week.
Trading Volume Analysis: BTC's average daily trading volume this week increased by 15.28% compared to last week, indicating an increase in market activity. To a certain extent, the increase in trading volume has provided impetus for the price to rise.
Market Sentiment: Although BTC fell during the week due to policy influences, market sentiment gradually warmed up after strong support at key support levels. Investors remain optimistic about BTC's long-term prospects, believing that short-term volatility cannot hide the long-term upward trend.
2.2. Funding analysis
According to the latest fund flow data, the Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a net outflow in the past week, with a cumulative net outflow of about $196 million. This indicates that the market sentiment is more cautious, and investors are gradually withdrawing from the top cryptocurrencies.
The virtual currency (VIRTUAL) saw a net inflow of about $2.56 million last week, showing some inflows. However, the overall scale is small, and it is difficult to have a substantial impact on prices for the time being.
Other cryptocurrencies such as SOL, NEAR, etc. There is no clear signal for the flow of funds, and further observation is still needed. Overall, market activity has cooled down and may continue to sort out.
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2.3. Smart Money Analytics
The flow of smart money is often an indication of the direction of the market. By analyzing the volume of large orders and the flow of funds, we can gain insight into the movements of institutional investors.
BTC Large Order Analysis In recent weeks, the volume of large BTC orders has shown a trend of outflow first and then inflow. This indicates that institutional investors first took profits and then opened positions on dips. Overall, the support force of BTC large orders is slightly stronger than the selling pressure.
ETH Large Order Analysis Unlike BTC, ETH has continued to have a net outflow of large orders recently. This indicates that institutional investors are bearish on ETH. However, the pressure of ETH's large single selling is not too large, and there is still some support in the short term.
Altcoin Large Order Analysis The recent sharp fluctuations in the volume of large altcoin orders reflect the cautious attitude of institutional investors towards this space. Overall, large altcoin orders showed a slight net outflow, but the selling pressure was not significant.
Prospect Judging from the volume of large orders, institutional investors in BTC and ETH remain relatively optimistic, and the support force may prevail in the short term. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in the altcoin space, and investors need to remain cautious.
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3. Hot topics
The Trump family's crypto project detonated heated discussions in the currency circle, and the price of the currency skyrocketed and plummeted
World Liberty, the Trump family's crypto project, has sparked concern by buying a large number of SEI tokens
According to on-chain data disclosures, a project linked to the Trump family called World Liberty spent $100,000 through Cow Protocol to purchase 541,242 SEI tokens on a cryptocurrency address associated with it. These tokens were then transferred to the World Liberty Foundation (WLF) main address.
This news has aroused widespread attention and heated discussions in the currency circle. Analyst Javon Marks said: "The Trump family's relationship with cryptocurrencies shows that Trump has changed significantly from Donald Trump's previous position. Trump called Bitcoin a 'scam' around 2021. However, during the second vice presidential campaign, he adopted digital assets and promised to participate in the Bitcoin conference in Nashville in July 2024 to make the United States the 'global crypto capital'. "
Trump offered to support the government's policy of holding cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin
Trump's proposed policies include reducing regulatory restrictions and supporting government holdings of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. After the Nashville meeting, Trump and his sons founded World Liberty, positioning themselves as important figures in the digital asset space.
Despite the initial lull in sales, World Liberty saw a significant increase in token sales following Trump's victory in the presidential election. According to Analytics, the company has currently sold $300 million worth of registered tokens. However, investors are currently facing the constraint of not being able to resell their tokens or claim any profits.
Market analysts are divided on the outlook for Trump's crypto project
Market analysts are divided on the outlook for the Trump family's crypto projects. Some analysts are optimistic about it, believing that Trump's support will drive the development of cryptocurrencies in the United States and the deregulation of regulations.
However, there are also analysts who are skeptical. Well-known analyst WSB Trader Rocko said: "Despite Trump's support for cryptocurrency, his policies could bring uncertainty and turmoil. We need to pay close attention to the specifics and implementation of the policy. "
SEI token price fluctuates wildly
After the news of the Trump family's crypto project buying a large number of SEI tokens came to light, the SEI token price fluctuated wildly. According to the data, the price of the SEI token skyrocketed by more than 300% for a short period of time after the announcement, and then quickly retreated, and it is still fluctuating wildly.
Analysts note that the sharp volatility reflects investors' disagreement on the outlook for the Trump family's crypto projects. Some investors are bullish on Trump's support, while others are skeptical.
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In general, the emergence of the Trump family's crypto project has aroused widespread attention and heated discussions in the cryptocurrency circle. Despite the divergent outlook, this event will undoubtedly drive the development and regulatory changes of cryptocurrencies in the United States. Investors need to pay close attention to the introduction of relevant policies and look at market fluctuations rationally.
4. Major events
Here are the top 15 events that have had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market in the last seven days:
Trump Administration Moves
2025-03-14 The Trump administration's plan to build a strategic cryptocurrency reserve has sparked heated discussions. Rep. Gerald Connolly asked the Treasury Department to halt the program, saying it had a conflict of interest and was not authorized by Congress. The program is funded by crypto assets seized by the government and is expected to have an impact on market supply.
2025-03-13 The Trump family's crypto project WLFI buys SEI tokens in a big way, causing concern. WLFI paid $100,000 for 541,200 SEI 4 hours ago at an average price of $0.18 and currently holds about $206,000 in SEI.
Main Policies and Regulations
2025-03-12 The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) step up enforcement against crypto companies, resulting in multiple projects directly blocking U.S. users from participating in airdrop activities. Research shows that between 2020 and 2024, U.S. users are missing out on about $5 billion in potential revenue.
Technology Upgrades & Updates
2025-03-14 Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin elaborated on Ethereum's roadmap at the Based Rollup Summit, including plans for scaling, hardening, and governance. He emphasized openness, censorship resistance, and security as core features.
2025-03-13 Solana Improvement Proposal SIMD-0228 voted not passed. The proposal aims to adjust the SOL issuance rate to a market-based solution that is expected to reduce inflation from 4.5% to about 0.87%.
2025-03-12 The total crypto market capitalization recovered slightly to $2.77 trillion. Bitcoin recovered from a low of $76,606 to $83,209, a rebound of more than 8%; Ethereum recovered from a low of $1,754 to $1,920, a rebound of more than 9.4%.
Digital Asset Performance
2025-03-14 Data shows that the best performing crypto assets this week include AVL, SAROS, BLZ, DEGO, and OBT. They stand out in volatile markets due to their excellent adaptability and growth potential.
2025-03-13 Among the top 100 crypto tokens by market capitalization on the day, XLM, S, MKR, PEPE and TIA were the top gainers, while IP, ENA, MOVE, HBAR and ADA fell more.
2025-03-12 Bloomberg reports that the return on investment of CS2 game skins has recently surpassed the S&P 500 index and major crypto assets to become one of the best-performing asset classes.
5. Global Policy
The following is an analysis and summary of new political developments, economic policies or regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry, as well as the impact on the industry and market, based on news from March 7 to 14, 2025.
Trump Administration Launches Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Program
Description
The Trump administration has announced that it will create a strategic Bitcoin reserve fund to store cryptocurrencies seized from criminals. The program aims to increase the legitimacy and mainstream adoption of Bitcoin. Under the new law, states can voluntarily donate seized bitcoin to the reserve fund. The bitcoins in the reserve will be held in a segregated account. In addition, the bill introduces a formal evaluation process for Bitcoin forked assets and empty investment properties.
Impact analysis
New Nebraska Regulations: Cryptocurrency ATMs Must Provide Fraud Warnings
Description
Nebraska implements new regulations that require all cryptocurrency ATMs to provide users with clear fraud prevention warnings before making a transaction. The regulation, which has been in force since March 13, 2025, aims to raise public awareness of the risks of cryptocurrency trading and prevent fraudulent transactions from occurring.
Impact analysis
U.S. Senate Banking Committee Passes Stablecoin Regulation Act
Description
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed a high-profile stablecoin regulation bill that aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins at the federal level. The bill will go to a plenary vote in the Senate.
Impact analysis
Summary
New Political Dynamics, Economic Policies and Regulations:
These new policies and regulations reflect the government's gradual regulation and acceptance of the cryptocurrency industry. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Program and the Stablecoin Regulatory Act are conducive to increasing the legitimacy and mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies. Nebraska's new rules are designed to strengthen risk management in cryptocurrency trading. Overall, these policies and regulations will provide a clearer regulatory framework for the long-term development of the cryptocurrency industry.
6. Investment analysis
6.1. Investment recommendations
Market movements show that the cryptocurrency market is recovering. The latest news shows that Franklin Templeton filed a 19b-4 filing for the Ripple ETF, marking an important milestone in the growing trend of crypto ETFs. In addition, Ethena invested $200 million to push the BlackRock BUIDL fund above $1 billion in assets.
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**Please note that these recommendations are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies is risky, so be cautious. **
6.2 Investment Strategy
Bitcoin is hitting resistance below the $80,000 mark, but there is still potential for a breakout. Ethereum found support near $2,025 and technical indicators are positive. Cardano is running above $0.85, with social activity boosting confidence. User activity and whale accumulation on Uniswap and Chainlink bode well for future growth. AAVE's lending function has been highly popular, and the transaction volume has increased significantly.
**Summary: Mainstream tokens as a whole show a volatile upward pattern, and technical and fundamental factors are expected to boost the market outlook. **
The contract grid strategy has performed well on popular currencies such as BTC and DOGE, with a yield of up to 2681.60%. The infinite grid strategy has a good yield on GT, GT and other currencies. The spot grid strategy has a higher yield on currencies such as GT and UNI5S. The martingale strategy yields more than 100% on BMT, XRP and other currencies. The intelligent rebalancing strategy has a yield of nearly 200% on mainstream currencies such as BTC and GT.
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**Summary: Quantitative strategies have outstanding performance under different risk-return characteristics, providing investors with diversified choices. **
6.3. Financial wealth management products
1. Simple Earn
After the user subscribes to the surplus coin, the system will determine whether the loan is successful and the interest rate of the hour according to the lending interest rate set by the user and the actual borrowing demand, and the interest rate of the hour can be obtained if the loan is successful.
Yu Bibao supports user-defined interest rate, and users can set the minimum lending rate when subscribing, and calculate the income according to the determined interest rate after the loan is successfully determined on the hour.
The total amount of USDT in Surplus Coin is 350,193,997.59, and the estimated annualized rate of return is 16.65% + 8.87%.
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2. Wealth Management
Wealth Management is a one-stop integrated wealth management service center set up by Gate.io Finance, including current, fixed and other financial solutions, providing users with a variety of hundreds of digital currency financial products.
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3. Structured Banking
Gate.io structured wealth management is a new type of financial product based on a combination of financial derivatives such as fixed income and options. Generally, the price performance of the target during the investment period is compared with the specified linked price to determine the level of return for settlement, which can be divided into two types: principal-protected and aggressive.
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4.Market Interest Rate
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Note:
Disclaimer: The above data is provided by a third party for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. This report is copyrighted by Gate.io and may not be reproduced without permission.
6.4. Technical Analysis: ETH Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy Backtesting
Trading Strategy
Backtest Results
Based on the historical data of ETH from January 1, 2016 to March 14, 2025, the results are as follows:
Data analysis
Summary of Pros and Cons
Merit:
Shortcoming:
In summary, this strategy is more effective in a bull market, but it does not perform well in a bear market, and there is a high risk and operational pressure. When operating, it is necessary to reasonably control positions and stop losses, and combine with other analysis tools to assist decision-making.