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AI Weekly Hot Topics Report (01.17 - 01.24)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trends
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market value of cryptocurrency reached $2.44 trillion, an increase of 1.23% compared to the previous period. The trading volume of exchanges increased by 2.87% to reach $144.252 billion. The price of Bitcoin fluctuated around $103,960.86, with a slight decrease in trading volume. The overall market showed a small upward trend, but the trading activity decreased, and the market sentiment was cautiously optimistic.
According to Gate.io's Fear and Greed Index, today's market sentiment is greed, with a Fear and Greed Index of 75. Compared to last week and last month, the overall market sentiment remains greedy, with the index slightly rising. This indicates that investors have a relatively high level of optimism towards the current market performance.
1.2. Macro Economic Impact
Recent data suggest that the pace of the global economic recovery has slowed and inflationary pressures persist. Eurozone preliminary CPI rose 8.5% year-on-year in January, higher than expectations of 8.4% and a record high. US CPI rose 6.5% year-on-year in January, higher than expectations of 6.2%, and core CPI rose 5.7% year-on-year, higher than expectations of 5.5%. This means that the Fed and ECB will continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation.
The preliminary manufacturing PMI for the United States in January was 46.8, lower than the previous value of 48.6, indicating a contraction for the third consecutive month and a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. The preliminary composite PMI for the Eurozone in January was 49.7, lower than the previous value of 49.8, reaching a 23-month low. This indicates insufficient global economic growth momentum.
The market currently expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March, with a rate range of 4.75% - 5%. The ECB may raise interest rates by 50 basis points in March, with rates reaching 3.25%. The global monetary policy continues to tighten, which will put pressure on risk assets, and the cryptocurrency market is expected to be under pressure in the short term.
1.3 Financial Calendar
Analysis Summary:
2. Analysis of Fundamentals and Price Volatility
2.1. Price fluctuation analysis
This week, the volatility of BTC is 2.14%. The price of BTC has shown a trend of first suppressing and then rising. At the beginning of the week, influenced by negative news, the price once dropped to around $103,000. Then, driven by positive factors from multiple parties, the price rose again, reaching a high of $107,500.
Trading Volume Analysis This week, the trading volume of BTC was initially suppressed and then rebounded. At the beginning of the week, the trading volume was low and market activity was not high. As the price stabilized and rose, the trading volume gradually increased. On Thursday, the trading volume reached the highest point of the week, indicating an enhanced market activity.
Reasons for Price Fluctuations Analysis BTC prices were initially suppressed by negative news this week, but later rose under the push of bullish factors. Negative news includes some institutions' doubts about the speculative nature of digital assets and regulatory policy uncertainties. Bullish factors include continued inflow of institutional funds, the Trump administration's support for cryptocurrencies, etc.
Market Outlook Overall, the price of BTC remained high this week. The enlargement of trading volume shows that the market activity is increasing, and the bulls are dominant. However, regulatory uncertainty remains a major concern. The market outlook needs to pay close attention to the policy trend.
2.2. Funding Analysis
According to the latest fund flow data, cryptocurrencies such as ALGO, VIRTUAL, and FET have shown a net inflow trend recently. Among them, ALGO had a net inflow of $18.71 million on January 24th, and VIRTUAL had a net inflow of -$12.36 million on the same day.
At the same time, cryptocurrencies such as SOL and SOLV experienced varying degrees of net outflows of funds. Data shows that on January 24, the net outflow of funds for SOL reached $30,450,800, and for SOLV it reached as high as $143,946,100 on the same day.
Overall, there has been an increase in market activity, but there are divergences between cryptocurrencies. Investors' divergent attitudes towards risky assets may further influence future price movements.
The flow of funds from institutional investors is worth paying attention to. Standard Chartered Bank's report points out that the inflow of institutional funds may drive the mid-term recovery of the cryptocurrency market, and it is recommended that investors seize the opportunity to lay out at the current low level.
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2.3. Smart Money Analysis
BTC Large Capital Movements According to data, BTC has experienced a large liquidation in the past 24 hours, with the liquidation amount of long positions reaching up to 144 million US dollars. This indicates that large funds are gradually withdrawing from BTC long positions, and it is expected that BTC will face significant selling pressure in the near future.
ETH Big Money Movement Unlike BTC, ETH has shown a net inflow of large funds recently. The data shows that the holdings of large ETH wallets have continued to rise in the past week, and it is expected that ETH will receive financial support in the coming period.
Overall Analysis Overall, there is a divergence in sentiment among large funds in the cryptocurrency market. BTC is facing selling pressure, while ETH is receiving funding support. This may suggest that there is a rotation of funds happening in the market, with investors gradually withdrawing from BTC long positions and favoring other cryptocurrencies such as ETH.
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3. Hot Topics
Trump-era crypto spree: TRUMP coins detonate a new wave in the crypto circle
President Trump personally issues coins, and the coin circle is witnessing another 'crazy moment'
In January 2025, President Trump personally issued the TRUMP token, triggering a new round of 'frenzy' in the coin circle. This presidential commemorative coin attracted a lot of investors' attention in just a few days, and its market value once soared to the astronomical figure of $14.5 billion.
According to Chainalysis data, the first four wallets to receive funds after the creation of the TRUMP token received most of the funds, which were used for holding or providing liquidity to exchanges. Although most wallets holding TRUMP were individual buyers with balanced income and expenditure, about 50 whales realized profits of more than $10 million at the wallet level.
In addition to the TRUMP token, Trump's wife, Melania, has also launched her own meme coin, MELANIA. ACCORDING TO SOCIAL MEDIA DISCUSSION DATA, THE MELANIA TOKEN HAS SPARKED 1,347 RELATED DISCUSSIONS, OF WHICH 283 ARE BULLISH ON THE COIN'S PROSPECTS AND 72 ARE PESSIMISTIC.
ARK Invest CEO and CIO Cathie Wood said, "I'm not sure about the practicality of TRUMP coin, but Trump is leading the next phase of the cryptocurrency revolution."
The Trump administration is fully committed to promoting the development of cryptocurrency.
In order to further promote the development of the cryptocurrency industry, the Trump administration has also taken a series of blockbuster measures:
Trump signed an executive order to establish the "President's Working Group on Digital Assets Markets" within the White House, led by "AI and crypto czar" David Sacks. The group will assess the possibility of establishing a national digital asset reserve.
The Senate Banking Committee of the United States has established a new Digital Assets Committee, chaired by Senator Cynthia Lummis, who proposed the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" resolution, focusing on digital asset legislation including the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Trump appointed Gary Cohn, a former Goldman Sachs banker, as the "digital asset czar" in charge of supervision, and coordinated the development of a comprehensive digital asset regulatory framework.
Deutsche Bank's latest report points out that the outlook for Bitcoin is optimistic. It is expected that the political turbulence and regulatory environment in the United States will continue to support its price until 2025. The adoption by institutions and the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will both provide support for it.
Cryptocurrencies are integrated into the mainstream, and institutional investors are flocking in
With strong support from the Trump administration, cryptocurrency is accelerating its integration into the mainstream financial system. Standard Chartered's digital asset research director predicts that institutional funds inflow will drive the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum to reach $200,000 and $10,000 respectively by the end of 2025.
Chris Taylor, an executive at the New York Stock Exchange, also said that more crypto companies are expected to make IPOs. BlackRock CEO Fink has publicly stated that he hopes the US Securities and Exchange Commission will approve the tokenization of bonds and stocks.
Although David Einhorn, the founder of Greenlight Capital, criticized the speculative rise of meme coins, he also acknowledged that "nothing can stop the introduction of more tradable tokens, and no one knows what will happen next, but it feels crazy."
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4. Major events
Major Event Review
Trump signs executive order on 2025-01-23 President Trump signed an executive order to establish the "Digital Asset Market Working Group" under the direct authority of the President, chaired by crypto czar David Sacks. The working group will develop a regulatory framework for digital assets, assess the creation of a "National Strategic Digital Asset Reserve," and prohibit institutions from taking action to establish a central bank digital currency. This order aims to strengthen the United States' leadership position in the digital finance field.
2025-01-23 Phemex hot wallet suspected of being hacked According to Cyvers Alerts, there has been a large suspicious outflow of funds from the Phemex hot wallet, with digital assets worth over $29 million being transferred through suspicious addresses on multiple chains. Peidun has also discovered significant abnormal outflows of funds from the Phemex hot wallet. Phemex has not yet responded to this matter.
2025-01-23 Plume integration with Opentrade Plume Network's flagship staking protocol, Nest, has integrated with Opentrade, a RWA lending and stablecoin platform. The integration will allow Nest users to deposit stablecoins to earn yields and borrow RWA assets, further expanding the use cases of the Plume ecosystem.
2025-01-23 Fasanara launches tokenized fund Fasanara Capital, a British asset management company, has launched the tokenized currency market fund FAST based on the Polygon blockchain. It aims to provide liquidity solutions for stablecoin issuers, DeFi protocol treasuries, and crypto funds, offering a 4.7% return.
2025-01-23 Jump sues former employee Jump Trading has filed a lawsuit against its former software engineer, Liam Heeger, accusing him of violating a non-compete agreement by operating a new company that directly competes with Jump. Jump argues that this violates his contractual obligations.
2025-01-23 Verasity Extended Staking Program Adtech protocol Verasity has announced that its VeraWallet staking program will be extended until March 31, 2026. From April 1, 2025, VRA's annualized staking yield will remain at 15%.
2025-01-23 Deutsche Bank is bullish on Bitcoin According to the latest report from Deutsche Bank, the outlook for Bitcoin is optimistic. It is expected that by 2025, the political turmoil and regulatory environment in the United States, the level of institutional adoption, and the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will provide support for Bitcoin. The support of the Trump administration for cryptocurrency is also a key factor in the ongoing bull market.
2025-01-23 Polymarket predicts Trump's approval of BTC reserves Polymarket predicts that the probability of President-elect Donald Trump approving the strategic bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office has fallen to 30%, and the amount of bets on the event is now close to $3.5 million.
2025-01-23 Brighty Focuses on USDT Payment According to a report by the US digital financial platform Brighty, USDT will account for 85% of its total cryptocurrency deposits by 2024, making it the second largest savings asset, with TRC-20 version USDT trading accounting for over 60%.
Standard Chartered Bank predicts BTC/ETH prices on 2025-01-23 According to the head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, institutional funding could drive the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum, which could reach $200,000 and $10,000 respectively by the end of 2025.
2025-01-23 Sonic Mainnet Integration with Chainlink Sonic Labs announced the integration of the Chainlink cross-chain interoperability protocol (CCIP) into its mainnet, enabling developers on the Sonic blockchain to leverage Chainlink's advanced infrastructure to create DApps.
A Surge in deBridge Trading Volume on 2025-01-23 The deBridge team, together with Solana and HyperLiquidX, is absorbing liquidity and launching a comprehensive acceleration mode. In just 5 days, its trading volume has grown rapidly, reaching a record of $202 million in daily trading volume.
2025-01-23 IOTX listed on VirgoCX IOTX is listed on VirgoCX, a leading compliant trading platform in Canada. VirgoCX is a compliant trading platform under Canadian legal supervision, serving over 5 million registered users in Canada.
2025-01-23 AI16Z receives increased investment from a giant whale Recently, it was reported that a whale increased its holdings of 2.31 million AI16Z tokens in just three days, purchasing them at a price of $0.83 per token, indicating strong market interest in the token.
2025-01-23 New Head of TON Foundation The TON Foundation's appointment of a new president, Manuel Stotz, will drive TON's expansion and strategy in the U.S. market, accelerate the development of decentralized technology, and enter into a partnership agreement with Telegram.
5. Global Policies
The following is a list of new political dynamics, economic policies, and regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry, as well as an analysis and summary of their impact on the industry and the market, according to the news from January 17th to 24th, 2025.
1. US President Trump Signs Executive Order on Cryptocurrencies
Description: Trump signed an executive order establishing the President's Task Force on Digital Asset Markets to strengthen U.S. leadership in digital finance. The working group will develop a federal regulatory framework, including stablecoin regulation and a feasibility assessment of the country's strategic reserve of digital assets.
Impact Analysis: This move shows that the U.S. government is taking a more friendly and supportive approach to cryptocurrency. A clear regulatory framework is expected to remove uncertainty in the industry, attract more institutional investors, and boost the cryptocurrency market. At the same time, if the United States establishes a strategic reserve of digital assets, it will further enhance the status of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
2. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will develop a regulatory framework for digital assets
Description: The Trump administration appointed Paul Atkins as the chairman of the SEC. The SEC will develop a regulatory framework for digital assets, indicating that regulation is shifting towards an innovation-friendly direction.
Impact Analysis: The SEC's establishment of a clear regulatory framework will establish rules for the cryptocurrency industry, eliminate regulatory gaps, and attract institutional investors, promoting the healthy development of the industry. It will also promote the launch of innovative products such as cryptocurrency derivatives and tokenized securities.
3. The US government postpones the launch of central bank digital currency (CBDC)
Description: Trump's executive order prohibits federal agencies from promoting or issuing CBDCs.
Impact analysis: Postponing the launch of CBDC is beneficial for existing cryptocurrencies to maintain a competitive advantage in the short term. However, in the long run, if other major economies introduce CBDC, it may pose a challenge to existing cryptocurrencies.
4. The U.S. government revokes the previous administration's executive order on digital assets and the Treasury Department's international framework
Description: The Trump administration revoked the previous government's executive orders and Treasury Department international frameworks related to digital assets, claiming that they stifled innovation and weakened America's economic freedom and global leadership.
Impact Analysis: This move removes regulatory hurdles and creates a more liberal and conducive environment for the crypto industry. It is conducive to attracting domestic and foreign innovative projects to develop in the United States.
Summary: In early 2025, the U.S. government introduced a series of policies and regulations to support the development of the cryptocurrency industry, including the establishment of a working group to develop a regulatory framework, the appointment of close individuals to lead the SEC, the suspension of the launch of CBDCs, and the reversal of restrictive policies of the previous government. These initiatives will remove uncertainty for the industry, attract institutional capital, and promote innovation, which is expected to propel the cryptocurrency market into a new boom.
6. Investment analysis
6.1. Investment Recommendation
Disclaimer: The above suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investment carries risks, so please make decisions cautiously.
6.2 Investment Strategy
This week's popular tokens include Meme coins such as TRUMP, MELANIA, VINE, etc. From a technical perspective, TRUMP's price broke through the $42 mark, with a daily increase of over 12%, but the MACD indicator shows no clear trend. MELANIA's price has dropped by more than 9%, losing its upward momentum. VINE's price has exceeded a market value of $300 million, with high trading activity, but there are suspicions of internal trading manipulation. Overall, these Meme coins have volatile prices and a strong speculative atmosphere, so investors need to be cautious.
Summary of Quantitative Trading Strategies This Week
Quantitative Strategy Summary
6.3. Financial Wealth Management Products
What is Yu'ebao The gate Yu Bao helps match users with idle assets and borrowing needs. After subscribing to Yu Bao, the system will determine whether the borrowing is successful and the interest rate for each hour based on the borrowing rate set by the user and the actual borrowing needs. Successful borrowing will earn interest for that hour. Users who fail to borrow due to excessively high interest rates and those who redeem funds before the hourly determination will not receive interest.
How is the interest income of Yu'E Bao calculated? Gate Surplus Currency supports user-defined interest rate, users can set the minimum lending interest rate when subscribing, and calculate the income according to the determined interest rate after the loan is successfully determined on the hour. If the funds are successfully lent on the hour T, the user can receive T~T+1 hourly interest at T+1. If the funds are redeemed before the T+1 hour, no interest will be earned for that hour. The interest accrued every hour will be automatically reinvested, and the principal and interest can be redeemed directly when redeemed.
What is the financial management treasure? The Wealth Management Center is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center established by Gate.io Finance, including current, fixed-term and all other financial plans, providing users with hundreds of types of digital currency financial products.
What are the investment periods for locked and unlocked financial management? Locking financial management requires locking for a period of time, including regular financial management, dual-currency treasure, structured financial management, and currency financial management. Non-locked-up wealth management can be flexibly participated in and can be accessed at any time, including live currency wealth management and surplus currency treasure.
How to Calculate and Distribute Interest/Returns? Participating in different wealth management products, the income rules may be different Profits will be calculated based on the specified annual interest rate, and the distribution time will vary depending on the product.
What is structured financing? Gate.io structured wealth management is a new type of financial product based on a combination of financial derivatives such as fixed income and options. Generally, the price performance of the target during the investment period is compared with the specified linked price to determine the level of return for settlement, which can be divided into two types: principal-protected and aggressive. Users can choose to purchase products with a specified investment period according to their desired rate of return, base currency, etc., and under normal circumstances, the principal and interest will be settled and redeemed at maturity, and early redemption is not possible (depending on the product type).
**What are the interest accrual and redemption rules? ** The subscription and interest calculation and redemption rules may vary for different financial products. Taking the Shark Fin product as an example, the final income calculation will be made at the end of the investment period and distributed to the spot account. The annualized yield of the final settlement income will be determined based on the relationship between the performance of the underlying observed price and the price range during the entire investment period.
**What are the risks of structured finance? ** According to different product rules, the annualized interest rate of accrual will be determined by the comparison between the observed price of the underlying and the specified reference price. When the market is highly volatile, it is difficult to grasp the relationship between the two, and there is a possibility of settlement at a lower interest rate. In addition, there is a certain risk of principal loss.
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4. Market Interest Rate
Note:
Disclaimer: Any data, quotes, and other information mentioned in the above content are obtained from publicly available internet resources, and do not represent the views or positions of our company, nor do they constitute any investment advice. Our company shall not be held responsible for any losses incurred from the use of such information.
6.4. Technical Analysis
Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy Backtesting
Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions by the standard deviation of the price. The following trading strategies were used in this backtest:
According to this trading strategy, the historical data of ETH is backtested, and the backtest results are as follows:
Data analysis:
Advantages:
Disadvantages:
In general, the Bollinger Bands trading strategy has a certain reference value for short-term operation of ETH, but it also needs to be combined with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis to reduce risks. In practice, investors also need to make appropriate adjustments according to their own risk appetite.