"Summer doldrums" have begun? The encryption fund saw the largest single-week outflow since the end of March.

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Original author: Mary Liu, BitpushNews

At the Monday opening, the encryption market faced downward pressure.

According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin broke through the support level of $66,000 in early trading, reaching a low of $65,046 at noon. Subsequently, buying pressure surged, pushing the price back up to $67,286. However, the bullish momentum was not sustained. At the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin was $66,580.16, with a 24-hour volatility of nearly 0%.

「夏季低迷」已开启?加密基金出现3月底以来最大单周流出

Among the top 200 tokens by market capitalization on Monday, only 5 tokens saw an increase of more than 1%. Convex Finance (CVX) had the highest increase at 25.3%, followed by cat in a dogs world (MEW) with a 19.7% increase. XRP rose by 5.8%. zkSync (ZK) experienced the largest decrease, falling by 24.3%. io.net (IO) fell by 22.1%, and ConstitutionDAO (PEOPLE) fell by 18.7%.

The current market capitalization of the cryptocurrency is $2.41 trillion, with Bitcoin's market share at 54.6%.

In the traditional market, the heat of AI-related concept stocks remains unabated. The S&P 500 index and the technology stocks-dominated NASDAQ 100 index continue to climb to historic highs, increasing by 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively.

Some analysts have adjusted their target values for the S&P 500 Index this year. Evercore ISI raised its year-end target price to 6,000 points, while Goldman Sachs expects the index to reach 5,600 points.

First rate cut in September or the end of the year?

The FedWatch tool at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that investors currently expect a 64% chance of a rate cut in September.

However, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, said in an interview with CBS on Sunday that the central bank may cut interest rates once this year, and it will wait until December, which is a "reasonable prediction".

As reported earlier, the Federal Reserve kept benchmark interest rates in the range of 5.25% - 5.50% last week, marking a year-long maintenance of the rate at that level.

The inflation gauge favored by the Federal Reserve, the year-on-year change in the personal consumption expenditure price index, was 2.7% in April, far above the Fed's 2% target.

Kashkari said, 'We need to see more evidence that the inflation rate is falling to 2%. We are currently in a very favorable position to slowly acquire more inflation data, more economic data, and labor market data before making any decisions. We are in a favorable position, but if you just say it will cut interest rates once, as the median shows, it is likely to be before the end of the year.'

The summer slump has begun

「夏季低迷」已开启?加密基金出现3月底以来最大单周流出

Since March, Bitcoin has been trading sideways in a narrow range. Alex Thorn, research director of digital asset investment company Galaxy, pointed out in a post on X that Bitcoin's 30-day actual volatility has dropped to near historic lows, highlighting the boring price trend.

In addition, CoinShares' report on June 17 showed that digital asset exchange traded products and fund outflows reached $600 million last week, the largest outflow since March 22. The total assets under management of encryption funds decreased from $100 billion to $94 billion.

CoinShares' data shows that the global trading volume of digital asset investment products last week was also lower than the average of $22 billion per week this year, at $11 billion. The trading volume of the US spot Bitcoin ETF was $8.73 billion, but still far below the peak of $32.69 billion during the week of March 4th to 8th.

Derivatives trading network Paradigm indicates that the cryptocurrency market is "losing momentum" due to a lack of catalysts to prompt traders into action. The company stated in an earlier Telegram update today: "Despite various optimistic forecasts, the new market needs real news to drive and maintain its appeal."

SDM analysts believe that "investors are 'turning to quality assets' after the Federal Reserve takes a tough stance. During periods of market uncertainty, investors move capital from riskier investments to safer assets to minimize losses and preserve capital."

「夏季低迷」已开启?加密基金出现3月底以来最大单周流出

ByteTree Chief Analyst Charlie Morris said that on-chain data indicates that due to the 'decline in USD trading value', Bitcoin's weakness will continue for at least a few months.

Morris wrote: 'I don't know how long this situation will last, but it seems to be a decisive change. This indicates that we should not be surprised by the breakthrough of the downtrend, and the prediction that the halving will make Bitcoin reach new highs has fallen through, despite the strong inflow of funds into ETFs this year, the price continues to touch resistance levels above $70,000. Today, the price has dropped below the 30-day moving average again, and the trend has decreased to 2/5. However, it is still in a long-term uptrend.'

Morris said, "My point has not changed, that is, Bitcoin will pump in October after a summer break. This has happened in 2016 and 2020. After the halving, the Bitcoin network took six months to stabilize from the speculation before the halving."

According to market analyst TedTalksMacro, this week is crucial for Bitcoin. He analyzed on the X platform, "For the next week, it is crucial for Bitcoin to maintain the support level of $66,000. Once broken, sellers may dominate the market and force longs to liquidate quickly."

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