Cash purchase vs futures shorting... Bitcoin rebound with 'tense coexistence'

As April arrives, the virtual asset market continues its moderate recovery trend. Bitcoin(BTC) rose about 16% in one month, breaking through the $78,000 mark, and the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies also increased by approximately 10%, rebounding to the level of $2.7 trillion.

Despite pressures from prolonged geopolitical conflicts and unstable energy markets, overall risk assets rebounded from March lows. Ethereum(ETH) also gained about 14%, with Bitcoin(BTC) maintaining a dominance of around 57%, with analysts believing that the “Bitcoin-centric” market trend is still ongoing.

Spot ETFs reignite institutional demand… Strategy’s purchases also provide support

In terms of supply and demand, funds are flowing back into the US spot Bitcoin(BTC) ETF. Net inflows in April reached about $1.7 billion, marking the strongest monthly inflow since October 2025, and Coinbase’s premium indicator turned positive, confirming the influence of spot demand from the US.

Corporate buying power also contributed. Strategy purchased an additional 56,238 BTC (about $4.1 billion) in April, increasing its holdings to 818,334 BTC, surpassing the approximately 802,654 BTC held by the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust(IBIT). Notably, the financing method shifted from primarily issuing common stock to more utilizing “STRC” perpetual preferred shares (with a floating dividend rate of 11.5%).

Futures favor the “shorts”… High open interest and negative funding rates reveal

On the other hand, in the derivatives market, caution is very evident. Bitcoin(BTC) futures open interest increased to nearly $50 billion, but funding rates remained in negative territory for most of April, indicating that short or hedging positions dominate.

This “spot buying - futures shorting” pattern increases the short squeeze risk in the short term. In fact, since March, about $1.9 billion in short positions have been liquidated, with some analysts suggesting that part of the recent gains are not driven by strong bullish conviction but by forced liquidations. Exchange-held Bitcoin dropped to about 2.3 million BTC, a seven-year low, indicating an increased long-term holding tendency.

Tokenized US Treasuries rise as the “benchmark layer” for on-chain yields… Risks need reassessment

In the on-chain yield market, “tokenized US Treasuries” are rapidly gaining prominence. Products like Ondo’s US Dollar Yield(USDY), short-term US Treasury funds(OUSG), Janus Henderson’s Anemoy Treasury Fund(JTRSY), and BlackRock’s BUIDL, started from near zero at the beginning of 2024, and by April 2026, the supply on Ethereum(ETH) has expanded to the highest levels, with cross-chain expansion underway.

In an environment of higher interest rates, tokenized US Treasuries are positioned as an alternative “base yield” option to interest-free stablecoins. However, issuer, smart contract, and liquidity risks still exist; on the other hand, yield-bearing stablecoins, LST/LRT, lending/insurance vaults, and other complex structures offer additional yields but come with greater operational, governance, and re-mortgage risks. Additionally, Google’s Quantum AI released a study estimating that the physical qubits needed to crack ECDSA public key cryptography(ECDSA) have been reduced by about 20 times (to approximately 500k qubits), bringing “quantum risk” back into focus as a structural market variable in the medium to long term.

Article summary by TokenPost.ai

🔎 Market interpretation - April’s crypto market can be summarized as “recovery amid volatility,” with Bitcoin(+16%) and Ethereum(+14%) rebounding together, and total market cap increasing by about +10% (around $2.7 trillion). - Bitcoin’s dominance remains at about 57%, indicating that the market is not broadly bullish on altcoins but continues the “Bitcoin-centric” trend. - On the spot side, there is buying (ETFs, institutional), but on the futures side, short/hedge positions dominate (negative funding rates), reflecting a positioning of “believing in upside but cautious of volatility.” 💡 Strategy highlights - The strong spot demand combined with futures short dominance increases the potential for short squeezes (caused by forced liquidations), so leverage positions should be managed conservatively regarding liquidation prices and margin buffers. - The $1.7 billion monthly net inflow into US spot BTC ETFs and Coinbase’s premium turning positive signal a renewed demand from the US, which needs to be monitored for whether supply and demand can support prices during short-term corrections. - Tokenized US Treasuries are surpassing stablecoins as a “no-interest” alternative, rising as a “benchmark yield” on-chain, but risks related to issuers, smart contracts, and liquidity must be carefully examined by reviewing product structures, collateral, and redemption conditions. - Quantum computing risks (potential vulnerabilities in public key cryptography) are currently not direct price drivers but are long-term security and upgrade issues; reviewing core chain roadmaps (post-quantum cryptography discussions) will be more advantageous. 📘 Terminology整理 - Spot ETF: An ETF that holds actual Bitcoin, tradable like stocks, used as an indirect investment tool. - Open interest(OI): The scale of open futures/options contracts yet to be settled, indicating market leverage accumulation. - Funding rate: The periodic fee paid between longs and shorts when futures prices diverge from spot prices; negative rates suggest short or hedge dominance (or bearish/hedge signals). - Tokenized US Treasuries: Issuance of US short-term government bonds (or bond funds) as blockchain tokens, representing physically linked assets that are holdable and transferable.