Bitcoin skyrocketed overnight above $77k! The Nasdaq has risen for 13 consecutive days, breaking the 1992 record.

Iran-U.S. reconciliation showed unexpected progress late on April 17, with Iran’s foreign minister announcing the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” for commercial shipping, and Trump immediately claimed that a final agreement would be reached “within a day or two.” Bitcoin surged intraday past $77,000 and touched the $78,000 region, while the three major U.S. stock indices rose simultaneously, with the Nasdaq hitting its longest winning streak since 1992. WTI crude oil prices plummeted over 12% in a single day. However, Iran’s parliament speaker Kalibaf quickly denied Trump’s announcement, and Bloomberg revealed a significant gap between the “complete open” statement and actual conditions, leaving market pricing to be verified.
(Background recap: BTC surged to $76k! Have whales already absorbed the selling pressure?)
(Additional context: Iran’s Foreign Ministry hinted that uranium enrichment purity and type are negotiable, and technical details are not within the scope of negotiations.)

On April 17, Bitcoin rapidly rose from around $75,000, breaking through $77,000 and reaching the $78,000 region, with a 24-hour increase of over 5%. This was the first time since the outbreak of conflict between the U.S. and Iran that the decline was fully recovered, with trading volume also expanding.

Regarding the U.S. stock market, all three major indices closed higher on April 17:

• S&P 500 rose 1.20%, closing at 7,126.06, marking its third consecutive day of record highs
• Nasdaq Composite increased 1.52%, creating a 13-day winning streak—the longest since 1992
• Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1.79%, up more than 850 points in a single day.

Oil prices moved in the opposite direction, with WTI crude dropping over 12% in one day, hitting a low near $83 last night.

Brent crude also fell about 11%, approaching $88, both marking the largest single-day declines since the outbreak of conflict.

Hormuz open, rate cut expectations rise

The core trigger for this market movement was Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” for commercial shipping. Trump immediately claimed on social media that Iran agreed to “indefinitely suspend” its nuclear program and said an agreement would be finalized “within a day or two.”

The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil transportation daily. Once the risk of blockade is lifted, the main inflationary pressure from supply disruptions will ease.

The 12% single-day plunge in oil prices and its ripple effects leave room for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path this year. The market can reassess the scenario of “controlled inflation and normalized interest rates” without relying on dovish signals.

However, it must be noted that CME FedWatch shows the probability of maintaining rates in June has recently risen to 89.2%, so this describes an “improvement in inflation expectations” rather than a “substantive increase in rate cut expectations”; the two should not be confused.

In terms of Bitcoin’s trend, if the bullish momentum in U.S. stocks continues, the next significant resistance zone is around $80,000; if risk appetite shifts, $75,000 remains a recent effective support.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Responds

However, as the market priced in the reconciliation narrative, three counter-signals emerged in succession, greatly reducing the overall visibility of the situation.

First, Iran’s Islamic Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf publicly spoke early in the morning, directly denying Trump’s seven announcements on social media as “all untrue,” emphasizing that the U.S. could not win a war through lies, and that negotiations would similarly end in nothing. If the U.S. continues to blockade Iranian ports, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz will be impossible; Iran will never relinquish sovereignty over the strait.

“Iran will never relinquish sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. If the U.S. continues to blockade Iranian ports, the open state of the strait cannot be maintained.”

Second, Bloomberg’s follow-up report pointed out that the “complete open” claim by Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi actually refers to an existing arrangement where commercial ships still need to coordinate with Iran before passing, which is significantly different from the market’s interpretation of “full freedom of passage.” In other words, the market is pricing in a scenario that is more lenient than the actual situation.