Trump: After Iran, the next is Cuba

“After Iran, the next is Cuba.”

On March 30 this year, in a statement by U.S. President Donald Trump, this remark pushed a long-margin economy back into the global spotlight.

If you interpret this line of remarks only as political rhetoric, you may underestimate its significance. What’s more worth watching is that before similar wording even appeared, the market had already begun to “price in uncertainty” ahead of time.

In mid-March, on a certain decentralized prediction platform, three accounts almost simultaneously opened positions, betting that “the U.S. will invade Cuba in 2026,” with a total amount of about $60,000.

This behavior in itself does not point to any definite outcome, but it reflects a shift: Cuba is re-entering the risk-pricing system after being a long-ignored variable.

0****1

The backdrop to this shift is the ongoing tightening of the real-world environment.

At the beginning of 2026, the United States further strengthened energy and trade restrictions on Cuba. On January 30, Trump signed an executive order, declaring a national emergency and imposing tariffs on countries that provide oil to Cuba.

The direct result was fuel shortages in Cuba and widespread blackouts, putting both economic operations and the social environment under synchronized strain. In such an environment, the first thing to change is often not production, but a more fundamental issue: whether capital can still flow smoothly.

It is under this question that Cuba’s crypto market has gradually taken shape.

In 2020, when Western Union shut down the remittance channel from the U.S. to Cuba, a cross-border funding pipeline that had been relatively stable was cut off. Many families that relied heavily on overseas remittances were forced to look for alternative routes.

Against this backdrop, crypto assets—including Bitcoin—began to take on part of the function of transferring value across borders. The hallmark of this stage was clear: demand came before regulation, and usage came before institutions.

Subsequently, in 2021, the Banco Central de Cuba introduced a regulatory framework related to virtual assets, implementing licensing management for virtual asset service providers and recognizing their use within certain limits. This does not mean crypto assets were brought into the traditional financial system; rather, it formed a model closer to “boundary management”—allowing their existence while also emphasizing risk isolation.

With this institutional arrangement, the crypto market moved from “spontaneous behavior” to a stage of “observable and manageable.”

Around 2022, as the sanctions environment continued, Cuba began discussing alternative settlement paths with countries such as Russia, and crypto assets were brought into the discussion framework for cross-border payments. At this point, its role had already extended from a “supplementary tool at the personal level” to “a potential settlement option.”

If you observe the period from 2020 to 2026 as a whole, you can see a relatively clear evolution logic:

• When traditional payment channels tighten, cryptocurrencies first emerge as an alternative route;

• After this alternative route is used repeatedly, it starts to come into regulatory view;

• When external constraints persist, it is further incorporated into broader payment and settlement discussions.

0****2

On the usage level, cryptocurrencies have already been embedded into multiple scenarios in Cuba.

On one hand, they are used for cross-border remittances and value transfer. Data shows that more than 100,000 users in Cuba are using Bitcoin and other crypto assets, with platforms such as BitRemesas and QvaPay serving this need for a long time.

On the other hand, they have begun to enter a more formal commercial environment.

On March 23, 2026, for the first time, the Banco Central de Cuba authorized ten companies to use virtual assets to carry out cross-border commercial operations. It allowed them to purchase, transfer, and custody assets within a licensing framework, and required them to disclose transaction activity on a quarterly basis.

This means that the role of crypto assets is extending from a “supplementary tool” to a “system-internal tool.”

If you place Cuba within a larger framework, this evolution is not a solitary case.

Sanctioned economies such as Iran are also exploring alternative payment paths, including those involving cryptocurrencies. The difference is that each country forms different usage methods based on its own resources and constraint conditions.

Cuba’s path is more concentrated on the layers of payments and circulation, rather than production or monetizing resources.

0****3

Returning to the original question: why did the market start acting before Trump’s remarks?

At bottom, when uncertainty rises, the market not only reevaluates the probability of the events themselves, but also assesses a more fundamental variable at the same time: whether the capital flow routes will change.

In Cuba’s context, cryptocurrencies are precisely part of those routes.

From remittance disruptions, to regulatory establishment, to entering commercial use, Cuba’s crypto market has not resulted from a single technological wave, but from a path formed step by step under real-world constraints.

And as the external environment continues to change, the path itself is still being continuously adjusted.