Iran's Potential for Regional Oil Disruption: What CSIS Analysis Reveals

A landmark analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has provided a sobering assessment of energy security vulnerabilities in the Middle East. The report indicates that Iran possesses the capability and motivation to target critical oil infrastructure across the Persian Gulf region, with potentially catastrophic consequences for global energy markets.

According to CSIS’s detailed assessment, the institution outlined four distinct scenarios through which Iran could disrupt regional oil supplies. These range from targeted blockades to broader regional strikes, each carrying different implications for petroleum prices and global economic stability.

Four Escalation Scenarios Threatening Global Energy Security

The first disruption pathway involves Iran’s own export capabilities. Should the United States or Israel attempt to blockade Kharg Island or intercept Iranian oil tankers, the response from Tehran could prove unpredictable and destabilizing. Such actions would likely push global oil prices upward by $10 to $12 per barrel, while simultaneously triggering dangerous counter-measures that would threaten allied nations in the region.

A second scenario focuses on Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 18 million barrels of oil transit daily. Using an array of maritime assets—including drones, missiles, and naval mines—Iran could effectively halt shipping through this critical chokepoint. Such a move would prompt international shipping operators to suspend activities, resulting in dramatic oil price surges and extended market disruption.

The third possibility involves direct attacks on Iran’s domestic petroleum facilities. This escalation would push oil prices above $100 per barrel and create long-term supply constraints, while provoking severe Iranian retaliation. However, analysts note that the most probable and destabilizing scenario remains Iran’s direct offensive against the oil fields and export terminals of neighboring Persian Gulf states.

In this most likely confrontation, oil prices would spike above $130 per barrel. More significantly, Iran would target not only petroleum infrastructure but also regional natural gas export facilities, potentially halting energy exports across the entire region and creating cascading economic consequences globally.

Why Alternative Routes Cannot Substitute the Strait of Hormuz

CSIS’s analysis reveals a critical energy infrastructure reality: bypass routes are severely constrained. Saudi Arabia can redirect only a fraction of its oil exports through alternative pathways, leaving the majority dependent on Hormuz transit. The United Arab Emirates operates the Port of Fujairah as a supplementary outlet, yet even this facility cannot accommodate more than a portion of the country’s export volumes.

For Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, the situation is far more precarious. These nations possess virtually no viable alternative export routes. Should the Strait of Hormuz face blockade, their oil exports would effectively collapse to zero, creating immediate energy crises and triggering severe economic consequences.

This structural vulnerability underscores why Iran holds significant leverage in regional geopolitical calculations. The concentration of Middle Eastern oil exports through a single maritime chokepoint creates systemic risk that extends far beyond regional boundaries, affecting energy security worldwide and making Iranian actions a matter of global strategic concern.