The 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the United States has fallen below 6% for the first time since 2022, and the spring housing market is expected to recover.

The average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the United States has fallen below the important 6% threshold for the first time since 2022, potentially providing a boost to the upcoming spring home sales season.

According to data released by Freddie Mac on Thursday, the average rate for 30-year fixed loans is 5.98%, down from 6.01% last week. In comparison, a year ago, the rate was 6.76%. The last time it was below 6% was in September 2022.

The “low 5s” in interest rates will slightly ease housing affordability and may encourage some hesitant buyers to enter the market. Since mortgage rates surged in 2022, the U.S. real estate market has been in a wait-and-see mode—high rates have pushed many potential buyers out of the market, while also discouraging many homeowners from selling, as they previously locked in lower mortgage rates.

Now, for those holding cash and waiting, the question is: are these rates low enough? Industry experts believe:

A gradual improvement in affordability could make this spring’s sales season the strongest in years. With rates below 6%, nationwide sales growth in the U.S. will become more stable, but without significant economic data changes, a boom year like 2021 is unlikely this year.

As rates decline, home prices soften, and incomes grow, affordability pressures are easing slowly. To sustain this momentum, the U.S. housing market needs more listings. When affordability improves alongside a significant increase in inventory, it can help continue easing home price pressures.

According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales in January fell to the lowest level since records began in 2001, mainly due to unusually harsh winter weather and ongoing economic uncertainty.

To fully revive the U.S. housing market, borrowing costs need to fall significantly further. This is not only because renters still find it difficult to afford home purchases but also because many homeowners are reluctant to give up their current ultra-low mortgage rates. Currently, about 70% of borrowers have mortgage rates below 5%.

However, the situation is at least improving. The monthly mortgage payment for an average-priced home in the U.S. now accounts for about 27% of median household income, still well above historical norms but the best in nearly four years. Still, the U.S. housing market needs more buyers and sellers to enter.

The winter storms that swept across the Northeast this winter may have further boosted pent-up demand accumulated over the years. Now, everything depends on whether rates below 6% can be maintained long enough to save this sales season. Industry insiders suggest that if it weren’t already February, many would be ready to jump into the market. The spring homebuying season will be a major test—success hinges on timing and whether market expectations align with reality.

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