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Bank of America: The likelihood of a hard landing has dropped to its lowest level since January this year, and stock allocation is rising.
On August 11, a monthly survey released by Bank of America showed that the probability of a hard landing has fallen to its lowest level since January 2025, and stock allocations are rising, but have not yet reached extreme levels. A net 78% of respondents expect short-term interest rates to decline in the next 12 months. 29% of respondents believe that the trade war remains the biggest "tail risk," while 27% believe that inflation hinders the Fed from cutting interest rates. 20% of respondents think that Fed Governor Waller is the most likely candidate to become the next Fed Chair, 19% believe it is White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and 15% believe it is former Fed Governor Warsh.