Original title: "RFC Token big pump 2000% Behind: Whale operators and the encryption capital game under Musk's narrative"

Original author: Alvis, Mars Finance

1. Phenomenal big pump: From marginal Meme to hundred-fold myth

In the late night of April 13, 2025, the monitoring alarm on the Solana chain suddenly went off—a Meme Token named RFC (Retard Finder Coin) saw its price soar by 200% within 15 minutes, with a market cap exceeding 100 million USD, and the price peaked at 0.199 USD. The climax of this frenzy was ignited by a massive buy order worth 1.2 million USD. While the market was still speculating whether this was a collective madness of retail investors, on-chain data revealed a more complex capital game: a sophisticated network woven by at least 3 associated address groups, 5 market makers, and 180 million USD in speculative funds, was pushing this "community frenzy" towards an unpredictable abyss.

1.1 Capital Big Pump: Achieving a Hundredfold Leap in Two Weeks

Since Musk first liked the "Retard Finder" social account on March 29, RFC has entered a crazy rising mode. From $0.003 on April 1 to a historical high of $0.2 on April 13, its price curve exhibits a typical "stair-step control" characteristic: every time it breaks through an integer threshold, there is a large volume of buy orders to support it, and the pullback is always controlled within 15%. This abnormal stability is indeed rare among Meme coins, which are known for their high volatility.

1.2 Whale Revealed: The Secret of $120 Million Liquidity

In the early hours of April 14, on-chain detective @CaNoe revealed key evidence: a Whale address starting with 0x3d... bought RFC worth 1.2 million dollars through four transactions, pushing the market value to over 100 million dollars.

But this is just the tip of the iceberg — the address completed fund splitting through 14 associated wallets within 3 days, with an actual buying scale exceeding 8 million dollars, accounting for 23% of the total trading volume.

Even more shocking is the flow of funds:

1. Upstream liquidity pool: 100 million USDC from a certain TRUMP market maker address, transferred through Gg5yX...

2. Relay Network: The address group 8hsoX... has completed 10 cross-chain conversions involving the three public chains ETH, SOL, and BASE.

3. Terminal operation: Finally, complete the RFC shopping through 5 newly created addresses on the SOL chain.

This three-tiered flow of funds exposes the skilled techniques of operators to evade regulation. As crypto analyst Yu Jin stated, "This is not a spur-of-the-moment speculation, but a capital layout planned for months."

2. Dissecting the Whale: The Capital Map of Cross-Ecological Operators

2.1 TRUMP Market Maker's Comeback

By tracing the historical behavior of the 0x3d address, we found a deep connection with the concept coin TRUMP for the 2024 election.

This address has only interacted with three coins, namely $TRUMP, $VIRTUAL, and $LIBRA. Especially with $TRUMP, there have been nearly 50 frequent interactions in total, with total buys of $7.3m and total sells of $11.2m. This interaction pattern can basically be confirmed as a market maker's address.

At the same time, activities were also carried out on $LIBRA and $VIRTUAL, both of which are recognized as super strong tokens, not to mention that $LIBRA is deeply mired in the manipulation scandal behind the entire foundation (although not many people bring it up now).

This typical market maker behavior pattern was perfectly replicated during the RFC campaign. It is noteworthy that this address group suddenly cleared all TRUMP holdings on March 15, which coincided with the timing of the RFC starting to rise.

2.2 Underlying Network of Interconnections

To further analyze the flow of funds, we have drawn a larger association map:

(Data source: GMGN on-chain analysis platform)

These projects collectively outline the trading strategy preferences of operators: selecting tokens with strong narratives, low circulation, and celebrity endorsements, and creating an illusion of liquidity through high-frequency trading. RFC just meets all the conditions—interactions with Musk, support from the Solana ecosystem, fixed supply, and other features, making it an ideal trading target.

3. The Musk Effect: The Fatal Temptation of Decentralized Narratives

3.1 From Twitter Interaction to Code Mysteries

The explosion of RFC is by no means accidental. On March 7, when Musk replied to the "Retard Finder" account's comments about "encryption needing more rebellious spirit" on Twitter, astute capital had already sensed the opportunity. On-chain data shows:

· March 8-10: 6 new addresses aggressively bought RFC worth 800,000 dollars

· March 15: The project official website updates the codebase, revealing the "XCorp" key (a company under Musk).

· April 1: Eric Trump retweets RFC related tweets, causing a frenzy in the right-wing community.

This three-part marketing strategy of "celebrity interaction - code hints - community dissemination" precisely hits the narrative hunger of the encryption market. Even though Musk has never publicly acknowledged his relationship with RFC, enough "coincidences" have driven speculators into a collective frenzy.

3.2 The Sword of Damocles of Concentrated Chips

M7 Research's on-chain report reveals a more dangerous reality: the top 500 addresses control 36.46% of the RFC supply, with a single address in the green cluster accounting for 29.61%.

This level of concentration even exceeds that of SHIB in 2021 (when the top 10 addresses accounted for 27%), giving whales absolute market control.

We simulated price impacts under different sell-off scenarios:

(The data model is based on historical liquidity data of Meme coins)

This means that out of the current daily trading volume of 120 million dollars, at least 40 million dollars belong to "false liquidity" — once the Whale starts selling off, the price collapse could be measured in hours.

4. Ecological Resonance: Solana's Wealth Creation Machine and Risk Hotbed

4.1 The Mysterious Driving Force Behind the Foundation

The deep involvement of the Solana ecosystem has injected additional momentum into the big pump of RFC. On-chain data shows:

· March 25: The SOL Foundation address transferred 5000 SOL to the RFC development team.

· April 5: A RFC/SOL liquidity pool appeared on Serum DEX, with an initial injection value of 2 million dollars.

· April 12: Solana Ventures associated address participates in RFC community governance proposal 7

This interwoven support of light and dark allows RFC to surpass the ordinary Meme coin category, becoming a "model project" that showcases the capabilities of the Solana ecosystem. However, the question is — when the interests of the project parties are deeply bound to those of the ecosystem builders, has the so-called "decentralization" deteriorated into a marketing gimmick?

4.2 Liquidity Siphoning Effect

Since April, the TVL on the SOL chain has increased by 16%, but 63% of that comes from protocols related to Meme coins. The price of Sol Token has risen from a bottom of 95 USD to the current 130 USD, an increase of over 35%. The rise of RFC coincides with a critical period of recovery for the Solana ecosystem.

Future Simulation: Directional Choices in Capital Games

Based on historical data modeling, we predict that RFC may face two potential paths:

· Optimistic Scenario: Market makers continue to maintain prices oscillating in the range of 0.08-0.12 USD, hedging profits through the derivatives market, extending the lifecycle to 6-8 weeks.

· Pessimistic Scenario: A new hotspot in the Solana ecosystem leads to liquidity transfer, with whales starting to distribute above $0.15, triggering a pullback of over 60%.

The current market may lean more towards the second possibility - the flash crash of OM coin on April 14 (a single-day drop of 90%) has triggered a chain panic, causing investors' risk appetite to quickly contract.

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