Has Solana bottom out yet? Experts respond.

In a new technical analysis shared on platform X, cryptocurrency analyst Scott Melker — also known by the nickname "The Wolf Of All Streets" (@scottmelker) — pointed out an important support-resistance setup for Solana (SOL). He particularly emphasized a typical technical bounce from a key support zone.

"The bounce back from the support zone of $112 is truly perfect. The double bottom pattern is only confirmed if the price exceeds the threshold of $147 – the peak oscillating between the two bottoms. Don’t rush to call this a double bottom pattern if that hasn’t happened. Anyway, the bounce from support this time is also very noteworthy, with a clear resistance level to watch out for."

The accompanying chart from Melker shows that SOL has bounced back from near the $112 threshold, reinforcing this area as an important short-term support zone. To confirm the bullish double bottom pattern, he states that Solana needs to break through the current downtrend line, which is around the $130 level. If this resistance is surpassed, the $147 level will be the next key technical milestone. Before this happens, he advises investors not to rush to assert that the double bottom pattern has formed.

Has the bottom of Solana appeared?

The above remarks were made immediately after a major event: the large-scale token unlock of Solana. According to Bitcoin Magazine, on April 4th, approximately $200 million SOL will be unlocked – marking the largest SOL unlock in a single day from now until 2028. Four accounts participated in staking a total of $37.7 million SOL since April 2021, and the current value of this investment has increased by 5.5 times. This event has sparked many lively debates on social media platforms.

Contrary to common concerns, a trader nicknamed NooNe0x seems optimistic: "SOL is being unlocked. Looking at the positive side, today is the last major unlocking event. Today alone accounts for about 40% of the total amount of tokens still locked. 78% of the unlocking process has been completed; only a few major unlocks remain in May, June, and December. It's like peeling off a band-aid – painful once and then it's over."

In other words, if a large portion of the locked supply has been released, the selling pressure from the unlocked tokens may soon ease.

History shows that significant token unlock events – not just with Solana – are often priced in by the market in advance. Investors and traders tend to predict that large holders will sell, leading to a price drop before the unlock date. However, when the event occurs and the selling pressure is not as strong as anticipated, or a large portion of the tokens are still held rather than sold into the market, the price often stabilizes quickly and even rebounds in the days or weeks that follow.

This phenomenon occurs because many long-term investors – especially those who held early – may choose to continue staking or holding if they still believe in the long-term potential of the project. Meanwhile, short-term traders betting on price fluctuations due to the unlocking event will often close their positions after the "real news" occurs. The effect of "buying the rumor, selling the news" ( or the opposite ) can lead to strong fluctuations around unlocking milestones, but the final outcome still depends on actual selling pressure and market sentiment at that time.

On the contrary, trader and angel investor Awawat from APG Capital offers a more cautious perspective, stating that Solana is still in a fairly precarious state despite remaining above the $100 mark. "SOL has been completely 'shrekt' – breaking the bottom area of $170, bouncing back several times at $120 – currently holding above $100 but the ice underneath is very thin. Tomorrow is the last major unlocking event – I will look to buy below $100 if the opportunity arises, but the current situation does not seem optimistic," he shared.

SOL price chart | Source: X @Awawat_TradesAs of the time of this article, the price of SOL is trading around $115.

SOL price, 1-week chart | Source: TradingView.comDisclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

• Grayscale has filed with the SEC to list a Solana ETF on the NYSE.
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Mr. Teacher

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