Looking back at Bitcoin in 2025: Why has "digital gold" disappointed investors?

Bitcoin's return rate from 2025 to now is only 5.8%, far behind major asset classes, facing the challenge of a $100,000 resistance level, weak demand, and capital flowing into AI stocks. This article is based on a piece by Alice Liu, organized, translated, and written by PANews. (Background: Standard Chartered: Bitcoin may “never” return below $100,000, supported by four major forces.) (Context: Why has Bitcoin consistently hit new highs in this bull market while altcoins frequently hit new lows?) Although there is much hype about a potential crypto boom during the “Trump era,” Bitcoin's performance has lagged behind all major asset classes. Looking back at Bitcoin's performance from 2025 to now, 2025 can be called a “disappointing year.” Since U.S. President Biden's inauguration in January this year, Bitcoin's return rate has been only about 5.8%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes have achieved double-digit gains, and even gold, a classic safe-haven asset, has significantly outperformed Bitcoin. Investors hoping for a boost from the “Trump trade” are now facing a harsh reality: an unfavorable macro environment, capital rotating to AI stocks, and long-term investors taking profits have all limited Bitcoin's upside potential for most of this year. Since Trump took office on January 20: Bitcoin has risen 5.78%, the S&P 500 index has risen 11.95%, and the Nasdaq index has risen 16.17%. Source: X $100,000 resistance level The key question everyone is asking is: why can't Bitcoin break through? In simple terms, $100,000 has become a psychological profit zone. On-chain data shows that each time Bitcoin breaks this price level, the selling volume from long-term holders increases significantly. These individuals include early adopters, whales, and long-term staunch supporters, who are not panic selling; they are simply reducing risk and reallocating funds to other outperforming areas, such as AI and tech stocks. Each time Bitcoin breaks $100,000, it triggers a wave of selling: this is not panic, but profit-taking. This creates a structural selling pressure, making it difficult for Bitcoin's price to maintain new high levels. Weak demand and market structure Another reason for the market downturn is weak demand. Bitcoin's current trading price is below the cost basis of short-term holders: about $106,100 (as of October 30), and it is difficult to maintain above $110,000, which can be referred to as the 0.85 support level. This is significant because, historically, when Bitcoin fails to hold this range, it often signals a larger pullback—potentially falling to $97,000, where the 0.75 support level is located. This pattern has been observed for the third time in the current cycle: strong rebounds, exhausted demand, followed by long-term consolidation. In short, the market needs a reset. Currently, there is no sign of large-scale new capital inflows. Retail investor sentiment is low. Institutional investors are also taking a cautious stance. Without new demand, each rebound fades faster. Currently, publicly listed companies hold over 5% of Bitcoin's total supply, source: CoinMarketCap Miners and macro factors Additionally, miners and macro factors bring dual pressure. Starting with miners: after Bitcoin's halving, miners' profit margins have been squeezed. Many miners have to sell part of their holdings to cover operational costs. Coupled with the rise in U.S. real yields earlier this year, miners have shifted from net buyers to net sellers. However, from a macro perspective, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September was lower than expected, providing some relief, mainly due to easing housing inflation. This creates room for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in October and December, and the market has largely digested this expectation. If this easing cycle materializes, it could boost risk sentiment by the end of the fourth quarter. But currently, this favorable news has not translated into Bitcoin's strength: liquidity remains tight, and capital is still chasing high beta index (PANews note: a financial indicator reflecting the performance of high-volatility stock markets) AI stocks, rather than crypto assets. Options frenzy and market evolution A significant structural change this year has occurred in the derivatives space. The open interest in Bitcoin options has hit an all-time high and continues to grow. This is actually a positive sign of the market maturing. It has also changed investor behavior. They are no longer directly selling spot Bitcoin but using options to hedge risks or bet on volatility. This alleviates the direct selling pressure in the spot market but amplifies short-term fluctuations. Nowadays, every significant volatility triggers hedging actions from traders, thereby intensifying intraday price fluctuations. The market is now entering a new phase, where price movements are more influenced by derivatives positions rather than driven by long-term beliefs. This indicates that Bitcoin has become a fully financialized macro asset. What stage is the current market in? Overall, it seems to be in a consolidation phase at the end of a cycle. Long-term holders are reducing risk, miners are selling, short-term buyers are in a loss position, and derivatives are dominating. This combination typically leads to prolonged consolidation before the next real market move occurs. Historically, Bitcoin thrives during cyclical resets—weak hands exit, strong hands rebuild positions, and macro liquidity eventually returns. We may currently be in a rebuilding phase. The crypto market is in a rebuilding phase, source: CoinMarketCap The road ahead So what comes next? The $97,000 to $100,000 range will be crucial. If Bitcoin can hold this range during the two Federal Reserve meetings, the situation at the beginning of 2026 looks optimistic—especially if interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion start to rekindle risk appetite. But if this support level is broken, we may see a capitulation-style sell-off, followed by the next wave of upward movement—similar to the adjustments seen in mid-2019 and 2022. The key point is: this is not a collapse, but a recalibration. Bitcoin's poor performance this year is not due to fundamentals, but the result of capital rotation and the natural volatility of mature asset classes. Once the macro environment turns favorable again, Bitcoin is expected to become the preferred high beta hedging asset in the global market. Related Reports Bitcoin warms up and breaks through $109,000, Ethereum returns to $3,800! U.S. stocks are all red, Nasdaq achieves seven consecutive monthly gains Bitcoin white paper released 17th anniversary: Satoshi Nakamoto's dream of decentralization is being redefined by power The Trump-Xi meeting appears peaceful but conceals turbulence: The U.S. restarts nuclear tests “return to Cold War confrontation,” Bitcoin sensitive plummets <Looking back at Bitcoin's 2025: Why has “digital gold” disappointed investors?> This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.