美国衰退确认了？会是大熊市吗？一个坏消息，两个好消息
1、坏消息：
垃圾级和投资级信用利差本周正式突破了下降趋势（如图右下），按照美国经济历史数据，这个衡量金融市场压力的指标的向上突破，预示着美国大概率要进入经济衰退；
受到关税冲击、贸易摩擦加剧、消费者信心下跌及政策不确定性等因素影响，做好准备未来12月内进入经济衰退。
初步推断，预计Q2/Q3 GDP负增长，正式确认经济衰退；
2、好消息一：
经济衰退不意味着美股的熊市将漫长、难熬；
股市预期的是未来经济前景，正式进入经济衰退前，美股往往就开始大跌了，而在很多历史案例中，正式确认经济衰退的早期，美股就能预期未来几个季度的情况而提前见底转牛。
美股的周期性熊市平均持续2年，事件驱动型熊市平均持续3-8个月（参考我置顶的“以史为鉴：美股近50年历次熊市总结和启示”）；
这波熊市是特朗普关税大战的事件驱动的，所以应该不会超过8个月；
另外，权利欲极强的特朗普真正在意的是2026年中期选举，他不会允许众议院和参议院的控制权有失，所以有倾向性在今年大搞变革，把经济、股市基数做低，到了2025年底中期选举预热时，预计会出一些真正利好的政策，推动2026年经济和股市红火，以在中期选举中炫耀他的文治武功，来赢得中期选举。
所以推测，这波熊市持续时间预计在3-5个月，在Q3左右，美股可以真正的筑底转牛；
3、好消息二：
按今天标普收盘， $SPX 周线收住了MA120，短期低点已现；
日K在两天测试后站稳MA5，MA5拐头，这是企稳的第一步；
接下来，我们带着抄底的仓位，可以在标普5480-5865区间分批减仓止盈；
Sell in May, and go away;
6月、9月，美联储预计会恢复降息，今年Q4，美股和 $BTC 行情值得期待；
大家准备好子弹，稳健趟过熊市，跟我大战Q4！
Is a U.S. recession confirmed? Will it be a big bear market? One bad news, two good news.
1. Bad News:
Affected by tariff shocks, escalating trade tensions, declining consumer confidence, and policy uncertainty, be prepared for an economic recession within the next 12 months.
Preliminary estimates indicate that we can expect negative GDP growth in Q2 and Q3, which would officially confirm an economic recession.
2. Good News #1:
A recession does not mean that the U.S. stock bear market will be prolonged or unbearably painful.
The stock market prices in future economic prospects; often, before an economic downturn is formally confirmed, U.S. stocks start to fall sharply. In many historical cases, even in the early phases of a confirmed recession, the market had already bottomed out in anticipation of the upcoming quarters turning bullish.
Historically, cyclical U.S. bear markets have averaged about two years in duration, while event-driven bear markets have typically lasted between 3 to 8 months (refer to my pinned tweet “Lessons from U.S. Bear Markets in the Past 50 Years” at ).
Since this bear market is driven by Trump’s tariff war, it should not last more than 8 months. Moreover, the power-hungry Trump truly cares about the 2026 midterm elections and will not allow the control of Congress to slip away. He is therefore inclined to enact dramatic reforms this year to lower the economic and stock market base. Then, by late 2025 as the midterm election campaign heats up, we can expect some truly favorable policies to be introduced that will drive the economy and the stock market into an upswing in 2026.
In summary, it is anticipated that this bear market will last for 3 to 5 months and that by Q3 the market will have truly bottomed out and begun turning bullish.
3. Good News #2:
Based on today’s #SPX closing, $SPX is holding above its 120-week moving average (MA120), indicating that a short-term bottom has already appeared.
On the daily chart, after two days of testing, the 5-day moving average (MA5) has stabilized and begun turning upward—this is the first sign of market stabilization.
Moving forward, with our positions taken for bottom-dipping, we can gradually reduce our holdings in the S&P 500 within the 5480–5865 range to take profits.
Remember, "sell in May, and go away.”
Prepare your ammunition and steadfastly ride through the bear market—join me in gearing up for a strong rally in Q4!
