Recently, many people may have noticed that the situation for Bitcoin miners has become quite stressful. Currently, the BTC price is hovering around $77,800, while the estimated production costs for miners are set at around $89,000 to $91,000, resulting in a significant 20-25% negative spread. In other words, most of the network's miners are operating at a loss.
In this squeezed environment, the entity-adjusted NUPL has dropped to about 0.2, and market sentiment has been pushed back into the fear zone of the past. In the previous cycle, this indicator hovered around 0.6, and Bitcoin rose close to $110k. Since then, selling pressure has continued to build, compressing the network's unrealized gains overall.
Miners are forced to sell their reserves to maintain cash flow, and some companies are considering investing in AI data center infrastructure. Interestingly, diversification in mining operations is also seen in XRP and other asset sectors, indicating that the entire mining industry is being pushed to rebuild its revenue streams. Mining difficulty has been adjusted in response to the margin compression in February, and the network hash rate fluctuates between 980 and 1,150 EH/s. Hash price remains near $30 to $32 per PH/s per day, putting most miners other than the most efficient ones close to breakeven.
However, what’s particularly interesting is that liquidity indicators on exchanges are beginning to suggest structural changes. The Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has risen above its 90-day moving average, forming a new golden cross. Historically, similar crossovers in 2016, 2019, and early 2023 preceded sustained upward expansions. This signal suggests that large investors may be starting to buy early.
The movement of stablecoins is also worth noting. The total stablecoin market cap has reached $312.95 billion, expanding by 0.87% weekly and 3.73% monthly. The supply of USD Coin has increased by 9.34% over the past 30 days, indicating ongoing capital redeployment. Institutional investors are withdrawing Bitcoin for longer-term holdings, and OTC desk balances are sharply decreasing. This movement occurs alongside the easing of miner selling pressure and is gradually stabilizing spot liquidity.
However, macro credit tightening remains a concern. If conditions worsen, miner liquidations could be triggered again, prolonging the adjustment phase. Bitcoin is currently trading near the Realized Price line of around $67,900, in an unstable equilibrium.
Ultimately, the current market is at a critical turning point where structural stress and new capital inflow signals are colliding. While miners are clearly in distress, the movements of large investors and improving liquidity indicators suggest that accumulation may be progressing at the bottom. Depending on the next developments, significant volatility is expected.