The direction was right, but timing didn't cooperate.

If I had originally chosen expiration on December 31, 2025, this position would have been profitable today. Haha, what a shame—just 7 days too late, and the whole opportunity slipped away.

Same thought process, same correct market direction prediction, yet I also missed the timing of a top exchange's spot listing momentum. Prediction markets are truly magical—your judgment might be completely correct, but the time variable is enough to destroy everything.

The deeper you get involved, the more you feel that sense of powerlessness. It's not that your analytical ability is lacking; it's that the market never unfolds as expected. Time cost, liquidity windows, entry timing... each one can determine whether you end up profitable or at a loss.

This is what prediction markets taught me: no matter how perfect your forecast is, it can't overcome being "too early" or "too late."