Satoshi Nakamoto còn sống không? Lý do đơn giản về việc người sáng lập Bitcoin đã qua đời

The New York Times reported in a recent investigation, directly stating that the cryptographer Adam Back is very likely to be the Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. However, Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter rebutted this, emphasizing that if Satoshi Nakamoto is still alive, he could not possibly ignore the quantum computer threat facing Bitcoin.

The New York Times: Is Adam Back Satoshi Nakamoto?

The arguments in the Times’ report focus on Adam Back’s cypherpunk background, the technical links between the proof-of-work system he invented, Hashcash, and the design of Bitcoin, and the similarities between the two in terms of writing habits and word usage. However, Back has publicly denied this matter for many years.

Carter points out that the article lacks any substantive new evidence; stylometric analysis is easily manipulated in statistical methods, and the overall argumentative force is clearly insufficient to support an identity attribution. However, he also admits that in the future, there may be an opportunity to get an answer to this question with help from artificial intelligence.

(LLM 恐破壞網路匿名與隱私：AI 能找出中本聰是誰嗎？)

Quantum computers closing in: 1.7 million bitcoins at serious risk

The core of Carter’s argument is an imminent technical crisis. At present, there are about 1.7 million BTC stored in the Bitcoin network on legacy Pay to Public Key (P2PK) addresses, with a market value exceeding $120 billion—about 9% of Bitcoin’s total supply. The fatal weakness of this kind of address is that it directly exposes the holder’s public key:

Once quantum computers’ computing power becomes strong enough, the private key can be derived in turn, thereby fully taking control of these assets.

According to Google’s latest research, the number of qubits required to crack this kind of encryption may be far lower than previously expected—around 26,000 qubits can complete the cracking within a few days. Google has also set a deadline of 2029 for completing the post-quantum cryptography upgrade, and the U.S. government has likewise required critical infrastructure to complete the transition by 2030.

In the industry, it is widely believed that the so-called “Q-Day (quantum cracking day)” is no longer an unreachable sci-fi scenario, but a real-world cybersecurity challenge for the internet in this century.

(Google aims to complete the post-quantum migration after 2029; in contrast, the Bitcoin community consensus is unclear)

Has the Bitcoin community taken action?

Faced with this potential crisis, the Bitcoin developer community is not without options. Theoretically, it is possible through software upgrades to prohibit any spending from these legacy P2PK addresses, which is equivalent to permanently freezing these assets.

However, in practice, this方案 is almost impossible to implement. Bitcoin’s core culture is built on a belief in “the inviolability of property rights, and an immutable monetary policy.” Forcibly freezing users’ funds, therefore, is no different from violating Bitcoin’s founding spirit, and it has also sparked strong resistance from parts of the community.

(When Bitcoin is no longer willing to change: the real risk is not the quantum threat, but the religiously formed community)

Carter: If Satoshi Nakamoto is alive, he can’t just stand by

This is exactly Carter’s strongest inference. Satoshi Nakamoto himself had already participated in discussions related to Bitcoin’s quantum risk as early as 2010, so he was by no means unaware of this problem. If Satoshi Nakamoto is still alive, and has a sense of responsibility toward Bitcoin, he would have every ability to take action while remaining anonymous:

Transfer the held Bitcoins to new addresses that use post-quantum encryption, or directly send these assets to burn addresses; it can fundamentally eliminate the risk of quantum attacks.

However, from 2010, when Satoshi Nakamoto faded from the public eye to the present, these assets have never moved. Carter believes that a Satoshi Nakamoto who is still alive and cares about Bitcoin’s future cannot be indifferent to such an urgent systemic threat. The only reasonable explanation is that he is already unable to act, or he has long since passed away.

This article Has Satoshi Nakamoto still been alive? A simple reason why the Bitcoin founder has already died appeared earliest on Chain News ABMedia.