If quantum computers break through Bitcoin, could it trigger a $145 billion sell-off? Analyst: The market can handle it

Quantum computing technology poses a threat to Bitcoin, with experts analyzing that the 1.7 million Bitcoins from the Satoshi era carry potential risks. Even with $145 billion in assets facing theft and sell-offs.

As quantum computing advances rapidly, the crypto community’s panic is reignited: Can quantum computers crack Bitcoin? If all the ancient wallets from the “Satoshi era” are hacked, could this potential sell-off of 1.7 million Bitcoins, worth $145 billion, cause the cryptocurrency market to collapse instantly?

The threat of quantum computing is indeed not unfounded. Bitcoin analyst James Check pointed out that, in theory, as long as quantum computers have enough computing power, they could brute-force Bitcoin’s “elliptic curve signatures,” hacking into wallets that have exposed their “public keys,” especially targeting the early wallets from the “Satoshi era.”

In response, quantum doomsayers warn that once these ancient whales’ defenses are torn down, a massive influx of Bitcoin could flood the market, triggering an epic crash. However, if we calmly analyze the numbers, the answer appears quite different.

Currently, about 1.7 million Bitcoins are stored in early addresses vulnerable to quantum attacks. At current prices, the potential sell pressure could reach $145 billion. This sounds like a nuclear-level market bearish signal, but in practical trading terms, this figure is well within the market’s absorption capacity.

Image source: Lookonchain

Looking at historical data, during bullish market celebrations, long-term holders (those holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days) sell an average of 10k to 30k Bitcoins daily. At this rate, even if all 1.7 million Bitcoins from the Satoshi era flood the market, it would only amount to the typical profit-taking scale of two to three months.

Revisiting the last bear market, over 2.3 million Bitcoins changed hands among investors within a single quarter. This scale already exceeds the “entire attack target” potential of quantum computers, yet the market did not experience a systemic collapse at that time.

Image source: Lookonchain

Ancient whales cannot cause a tsunami

Additionally, the monthly Bitcoin inflow to exchanges is nearly 850k coins; meanwhile, the nominal trading volume generated in the derivatives market every few days is enough to offset this entire batch of Satoshi-era Bitcoins. In other words, while $145 billion sounds astronomical if viewed in isolation, when placed against Bitcoin’s current liquidity and turnover, it appears quite normal.

Of course, James Check also admits that if this huge sell pressure were to erupt suddenly in the short term, it would inevitably cause intense market volatility or even a prolonged downturn. But this scenario assumes that hackers have no economic sense.

He explains that any hacker with such advanced skills capable of cracking and stealing this massive wealth would never choose to dump everything at once and shoot themselves in the foot. To maximize profits, they would likely adopt a slow, phased approach, possibly using derivatives to hedge, greatly reducing the profit loss caused by slippage.

The real test is not selling pressure, but “governance”

Historical experience shows that the Bitcoin market has enough resilience to absorb such sell-offs steadily within a few months (not years). Therefore, when facing a quantum crisis, the real challenge is never just mechanical selling pressure but “governance.”

Image source: Lookonchain

When this day truly approaches, how should the Bitcoin community and developers respond? Instead of worrying about market collapse, a bigger controversy is whether the Bitcoin network should activate mechanisms similar to BIP-361 to forcibly “freeze” these threatened early addresses. Or should it adhere to Bitcoin’s core principles of “decentralization and censorship resistance,” letting market mechanisms naturally resolve everything? This is the ultimate dilemma quantum threats pose to the entire crypto space.

• This article is reprinted with permission from: “Blockcast”
• Original title: “Quantum Computers Breaking Bitcoin Could Trigger $145 Billion Sell Pressure? Analysis: Can the Market Withstand It?”
• Original author: Block Sister MEL