Brazil has enacted a sweeping ban on prediction markets and betting platforms, including the two leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, according to local media and government filings. The Banco Central do Brasil issued a resolution prohibiting the platforms due to non-compliance with local derivatives trading regulations and risks to investor protections and market integrity. Finance Minister Dario Durigan stated that approximately 28 platforms were banned in total as part of a broader governmental effort to protect Brazilian savings amid rising online gambling.
Regulatory Scope and Details
According to the Banco Central do Brasil resolution, the ban prohibits “the offering and trading in the country of derivative contracts whose underlying assets are related to: a real sporting event, virtual online gaming event and a real or virtual event of a political, electoral, social, cultural, entertainment, or any other nature that, at the discretion of the Securities and Exchange Commission, is not representative of an economic or financial benchmark.”
Global Context
Polymarket is blocked by over 30 countries around the world, according to its documentation, including OFAC restrictions and national bans. In January, Portugal moved to restrict the platform, following similar moves by France, Belgium, Australia, the UK, Italy, Poland and Singapore, among others. In some countries, only specific markets are banned, such as political betting in Taiwan.
U.S. Regulatory Landscape
The regulatory environment in the United States differs significantly from Brazil’s approach. The U.S. historically prevented for-profit prediction markets until Kalshi successfully sued the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission for blocking its election markets in 2024, opening the gate for platforms like Polymarket to reenter the country. Today, the CFTC takes a permissive view of prediction markets and is currently suing several states that are looking to ban the nascent sector.
As of Friday, Wisconsin is the most recent state to lodge a lawsuit against Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, alleging their sports event contracts violate the state’s commercial gambling ban.
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