Brazil has enacted a sweeping ban on prediction markets and betting platforms, according to local media and government filings. The two leading prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, were inaccessible to researchers in the country based on direct testing.
Regulatory Basis and Scope
The Banco Central do Brasil published a resolution stating that the platforms were not in compliance with local regulations on derivatives trading and raised risks for investor protections and market integrity. According to the resolution, “the offering and trading in the country of derivative contracts whose underlying assets are related to the following are prohibited: a real sporting event, virtual online gaming event and a real or virtual event of a political, electoral, social, cultural, entertainment, or any other nature that, at the discretion of the Securities and Exchange Commission, is not representative of an economic or financial benchmark.”
Finance Minister Dario Durigan stated that some 28 platforms were banned in the country. Durigan cast the move as part of a broader governmental effort to protect the savings of Brazilians amid a rise in online gambling.
Global Regulatory Landscape
Polymarket is blocked by over 30 countries around the world, according to its documentation, including OFAC restrictions and national bans. In January, Portugal moved to restrict the platform, following similar moves by France, Belgium, Australia, the UK, Italy, Poland and Singapore, among others. In some countries, only specific markets are banned, such as political betting in Taiwan.
United States Regulatory Context
The United States historically prevented for-profit prediction markets until Kalshi successfully sued the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission for blocking its election markets in 2024, opening the gate for platforms like Polymarket to reenter the country. Today, the CFTC takes a permissive view of prediction markets and is currently suing several states that are looking to ban the nascent sector.
As of Friday, Wisconsin is the most recent state to lodge a lawsuit against Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, alleging their sports event contracts violate the state’s commercial gambling ban.
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