Grayscale Research: Bitcoin has bottomed out, on-chain data shows early signs of a bull market

The crypto market has never ceased its debate over whether Bitcoin has bottomed out after experiencing a deep correction from late 2025 to early 2026. On April 22, 2026, the Grayscale research team released a new analysis report officially declaring that the Bitcoin bear market bottom has been established. This judgment is based on the on-chain core indicator “realized price” evolution, contrasting sharply with the current market consensus.

According to Gate market data, as of April 22, 2026, Bitcoin’s price was $77,966.6, with a 24-hour trading volume of $513 million, a market capitalization of approximately $1.49 trillion, and a market share of 56.37%. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin’s price increased by about 5.76%, but compared to the October 2025 high of $126,080, there remains a significant gap.

Grayscale’s bottom judgment is not only an expression of a single institution’s view but also has triggered a multi-dimensional review of cycle positioning, on-chain valuation models, and macroeconomic environment.

Grayscale research team officially declares Bitcoin bottom established

On April 22, 2026, the Grayscale research team published a report clearly stating that Bitcoin completed its current bear market bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range. Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, said that since Bitcoin fell to about $63,000 on February 5, the price has rebounded over 20%, and recent entrants have basically returned to break-even.

The core basis for this judgment is the on-chain indicator “realized price.” Grayscale estimates that the Bitcoin transferred on-chain in the past 1 to 3 months has an approximate realized price of $74,000, slightly below the current market price, indicating that recent entrants have escaped the floating loss state.

Pandl further pointed out: “If Bitcoin’s price continues to rise in the coming days, more recent buyers will enter profit territory, which could serve as an effective marker for the first phase of a bull market.”

Grayscale also emphasizes that although Bitcoin’s price is still far below the October 2025 all-time high, the rebound in February has established a sustainable support level, consistent with the market’s end of panic selling.

Tracing the path from the all-time high to the bottom

Understanding the significance of Grayscale’s bottom judgment requires reviewing the full timeline of this Bitcoin price correction.

In October 2025, Bitcoin reached a record high of $126,080. Afterwards, the market entered a correction phase, with prices gradually falling back. On February 5, 2026, Bitcoin dropped to about $63,000, nearly 50% retracement from the all-time high.

Since the February low, Bitcoin has undergone a sustained rebound lasting about two and a half months, with an increase of over 20%. As of April 22, 2026, the price stabilized above $77,000, gradually approaching the recent buyer cost line indicated by Grayscale.

During this period, institutional buying activity continued to support the market. Public data shows that large Bitcoin holding company Strategy added 34,164 BTC from April 13 to 19, bringing total holdings to 815,061 BTC. This factual data reflects that institutional funds did not exit during this correction but instead continued accumulating at relatively low levels.

Grayscale’s decision to issue a bottom judgment at this time has two key features: first, the price has rebounded sufficiently from the low point to provide initial validation of the bottom; second, the recent buyer cost line has been re-approached, and the on-chain profit/loss structure has undergone a substantive change.

Multi-dimensional interpretation of realized price indicator

The core methodology behind Grayscale’s bottom judgment is based on the “realized price” on-chain valuation framework. Here, we analyze from three dimensions: indicator definition, current reading, and historical reference.

Indicator definition and calculation logic

Realized price is a method to calculate the average cost of Bitcoin based on on-chain transfer behavior. Its core logic is to value each Bitcoin at the market price at its most recent on-chain transfer, then compute a weighted average to derive the network-wide average cost basis. Compared to market price, realized price removes short-term speculative volatility, better reflecting the true cost structure of holders, and is widely used to assess overall market profit/loss status and cycle position.

Grayscale’s analysis focuses on Bitcoin transferred in the past 1 to 3 months, estimating its realized price at about $74,000. This group represents recent marginal buyers; whether their cost line has been broken is highly relevant for judging market sentiment turning points.

Current reading and market implications

As of April 22, 2026, Bitcoin’s market price was approximately $77,966.6, slightly above the estimated 74,000 USD short-term holder cost line. This indicates that buyers who entered in the past three months have, on average, returned to break-even. From a behavioral finance perspective, when holders recover from floating losses to their cost basis, panic selling tends to decline significantly, and market stability improves.

Grayscale’s logical extension: if prices continue upward, more recent buyers will enter profit zones, creating positive on-chain feedback—profit holders are more inclined to hold rather than sell, easing supply pressure and favoring trend continuation. This is a hypothesis, and its validity depends on whether prices can sustain above the cost line.

Historical context and limitations

Placing the current realized price reading in a historical context reveals that this indicator is not isolated. CryptoQuant analyst TeddyVision pointed out in a report on April 6, 2026, that Bitcoin’s current price is about 25% above the network’s realized price (~$54,000), with the MVRV ratio dropping to 1.24 and NUPL to 0.20.

This data indicates the market’s structural features: valuation bubbles have been significantly cleared, but the network’s average holdings have not yet fallen into extreme loss territory typical of cycle bottoms. In other words, the “short-term holder cost line” touched by Grayscale has been breached, but the “network-wide cost line” remains below current prices, meaning some long-term holders are still in profit, and the market has not fully reset.

Additionally, Coinshares’ market update on April 10, 2026, noted that digital asset investment products experienced capital inflows for the second consecutive week, totaling about $415 million, marking the first sustained accumulation after nearly seven months of large-scale distribution. This factual data supports the bottom hypothesis from a capital flow perspective.

Divergence and logical debate over bottom consensus

The most debated aspect of Grayscale’s bottom judgment is its clear divergence from the current market mainstream expectation. Here, we systematically analyze from three perspectives: supporters, opponents, and neutral parties.

On-chain signals and institutional behavior convergence

Besides Grayscale, some on-chain indicators also show signals consistent with a bottom. CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, noted in early April 2026 that Bitcoin’s bull market index has turned neutral for the first time since entering a bear market, a change often associated with market sentiment bottoming out in historical cycles.

Meanwhile, ongoing institutional buying provides additional support evidence. Strategy’s increased holdings in mid-April suggest some long-term capital views the current price range as strategically valuable. While this fact does not directly prove the bottom has been reached, it indicates the market is not devoid of buyers.

Cycle framework and valuation indicator challenges

Not all analysts agree that the bottom has passed. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA researcher, told BeInCrypto that his baseline forecast points to October 2026 as the true bottom of this cycle, with about a 75% probability.

Cowen’s framework relies on historical cycle symmetry: from the October 2025 high (~$126,000), if the pattern repeats, the bottom should appear roughly one year after the high. He admits earlier bottoms are possible but would require “a drastic decline well beyond historical mid-cycle lows.”

Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, also believes the bottom has not yet arrived, predicting the low could occur between late September and early October 2026 based on fractal analysis.

CryptoQuant’s broader time window suggests Bitcoin’s bottom may occur between June and December 2026, with September to November being the most probable period.

Valuation indicator ambiguity

Some on-chain analysts believe the market is in an intermediate state, neither bottom nor top. TeddyVision from CryptoQuant pointed out that Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has fallen sharply from high levels to 1.24, and NUPL to 0.20, indicating valuation bubbles have been largely cleared, but prices still remain above the network’s realized price, so the market has not fully reset. This highlights a potential blind spot in Grayscale’s judgment: while the short-term holder cost line has been breached, broader holdings still show fragility.

Disagreement over key indicator MVRV Z-score

Among all opposing arguments, the current reading of the MVRV Z-score is most insightful. The MVRV Z-score, which divides the MVRV ratio by the standard deviation of market cap, quantifies Bitcoin’s over- or undervaluation relative to historical averages. CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom noted that although the indicator has cooled significantly from high levels, it has not yet entered negative (undervalued) territory. Historically, each cycle bottom has been marked by the MVRV Z-score dropping below zero, but currently, it remains above zero.

This suggests that, based on historical cycle patterns, the market sentiment has not yet reached an extreme pessimism. CryptoQuant speculates that Bitcoin may still need to undergo a “final flush” to complete the bottom formation, with a target price range of $55,000 to $60,000.

The core difference between these two analytical frameworks lies in their time scales and sample groups: Grayscale focuses on recent 1-3 months of marginal buyer behavior to catch early trend signals; opponents look at longer-term cycle statistics and broader holdings, waiting for more confirmation from historical patterns. Neither approach is definitively right or wrong—rather, they reflect intrinsic differences in analysis logic across timeframes.

Industry impact analysis: market structure changes behind the bottom debate

The dispute between Grayscale and other analysis institutions over the bottom reflects more than just cycle positioning; it reveals structural changes in the crypto market’s institutionalization process.

Deep integration of institutional capital and on-chain analysis paradigm

Grayscale’s reliance on realized price as a core bottom indicator signifies that institutional-level research has fully embraced on-chain data as a mainstream analytical tool. Previously, traditional financial institutions evaluated crypto assets mainly through macro factors and price charts, with on-chain data as auxiliary. Now, indicators like realized price, MVRV, and NUPL have become standard in institutional research. This shift enhances analytical precision and increases frequent cross-views between institutions and on-chain analysts.

Differentiation of market participant structures

Another implication of the bottom debate is the divergence of interests among participants across different timeframes. Short-term traders focus more on the breach of the realized price indicator highlighted by Grayscale, as this suggests reduced stop-loss pressure and rebound opportunities. Long-term allocators pay more attention to Cowen and CryptoQuant’s cycle frameworks, since early entry risks a potential secondary dip. This differentiation increases market complexity but also improves price discovery efficiency.

Narrative competition and market expectation game

Whether the bottom is confirmed is fundamentally an unprovable real-time judgment. Grayscale’s “bottom is in” narrative versus opponents’ “bottom not yet” narrative form the two poles of current market expectation management. From a behavioral perspective, this narrative competition is a key feature of the cycle bottom zone—when enough participants believe the bottom is in, buying pressure reinforces itself, pushing prices higher; if most still wait for lower prices, the rebound will struggle to sustain.

Conclusion

Grayscale’s report on Bitcoin’s bottom provides a data-supported analytical perspective for current market cycle positioning. The evolution of realized price, re-approach of the short-term holder cost line, and ongoing institutional capital inflows collectively form initial evidence of market bottoming. However, the fact that the MVRV Z-score has not yet entered the undervaluation zone, and multiple analysts point to the second half of 2026 as the bottom period, also remind market participants to remain cautious.

The bottom is never a precise point that can be forecasted accurately; rather, it is a process only fully confirmed in hindsight. In this process, on-chain data offers objective observation tools, but the interpretation, indicator preferences, and timeframe settings influence conclusions. For market participants, perhaps the most valuable insight is not debating whether the bottom has passed but understanding the underlying assumptions of different analysis frameworks and building their own judgment systems accordingly.