Market Strategy Tips (Evening of April 21 — Since April 22)

Market Analysis
Since yesterday evening, the market has been in a tug-of-war phase with bullish and bearish factors: the Federal Reserve Chair candidate Waller’s hearing has concluded, the US-Iran ceasefire extension has not broken the deadlock, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields remain high and volatile. Gold sharply dropped over 2% overnight, losing the $4,700 level, then stabilized and rebounded, consolidating narrowly between $4,700 and $4,750, showing a pattern of oversold recovery and macro suppression battling in both directions; the crypto market moved in a narrow range as well, with Bitcoin oscillating between $75,000 and $77,000, mainstream coins slightly rising, overall showing slowed institutional capital inflows, cautious market sentiment, and awaiting further geopolitical and policy guidance for a weak volatility pattern.
Macro News
1. Core macro theme: Waller’s hearing reinforces expectations of Fed independence; US-Iran ceasefire extension but deadlock persists; policy and geopolitical factors intensify the dual game.

Fed policy expectations become clearer: On the evening of April 22, Beijing time, Fed Chair candidate Kevin Waller testified before the Senate, focusing on three main points: first, repeatedly promising to maintain monetary policy independence, denying any rate decision promises to Trump, and dismissing doubts of being a “puppet of the president”; second, describing previous inflation runaway as a policy mistake, calling for a new inflation response framework, avoiding specific short-term rate cut paths; third, proposing cooperation with the Treasury to shrink the balance sheet, believing that reducing the balance sheet can lower the neutral interest rate. After the hearing, concerns about Fed independence eased somewhat, with CME FedWatch showing a 38% chance of rate cut in September, and a 62% probability of one rate cut for the whole year, with no major shifts in policy expectations. The US dollar index remains in a narrow range of 99.0–99.5, and 10-year US Treasury yields fluctuate between 4.25% and 4.30%, maintaining a neutral macro environment for non-yield assets.

Middle East geopolitical deadlock: Trump announced an extension of the Iran ceasefire before it expired, awaiting Iran’s submission of a unified negotiation plan, but maintaining maritime blockade and military readiness; Iran explicitly refused to attend the second round of talks, only agreeing to suspend military actions, emphasizing that key issues like the Strait of Hormuz control and nuclear matters are non-negotiable. The divergence remains unresolved. As a result, Brent crude oil futures stay high at $98–$100 per barrel, with inflation concerns still present, and geopolitical uncertainties providing a bottom support for the market.

2. Gold: Stabilized after a sharp drop overnight, with a dual pattern of oversold recovery and macro suppression.

Price trend: International spot gold opened overnight near $4,820, plunged intra-day to a low of $4,692.47 due to hawkish Fed expectations and dollar rebound, with a maximum decline of over 2.26%; then oversold buying entered, pushing prices to stabilize and rebound, currently at $4,748.62 per ounce in Asian trading, up 0.28% for the day. COMEX gold futures also stabilized, latest at $4,752.8 per ounce, up 0.12%. In China, Shanghai Gold continuous contract is at ¥1,047.92/gram, down 0.79%; Gold T+D at ¥1,046.2/gram, down 0.61%; mainstream retail prices for pure gold jewelry remain between ¥1,460–¥1,465/gram, slightly lower than the previous day.

Core drivers:
Bearish pressure: The overnight plunge was mainly due to Waller’s hearing reinforcing Fed independence expectations, crushing short-term rate cut hopes, combined with the dollar’s rebound, leading to profit-taking from long positions at historical highs, causing a sell-off. Global gold ETF holdings continued to slightly outflow, with institutional chasing cooling down.
Support levels: The Iran-US deadlock and geopolitical uncertainties persist, coupled with long-term central bank gold purchases—China’s central bank has increased gold holdings for 18 consecutive months—creating solid physical demand support below $4,700, helping gold stabilize after oversold conditions.

Key ranges:
Core support at $4,690–$4,700 (overnight low + psychological level), strong support at $4,650–$4,660;
Core resistance at $4,750–$4,780, strong resistance at the $4,800 round number.

3. Crypto Market: Narrow range consolidation, Bitcoin holding above $75,000, cautious sentiment persists

Price trend: Bitcoin opened overnight near $75,700, dipped to a low of $74,800, then oscillated and rebounded, reaching a high of $76,827, currently at $76,150 in Asian trading, up 0.76% over 24 hours; Ethereum also oscillated, latest at $2,325, up 0.64%, with main coins like SOL and XRP slightly higher, generally up over 1% intra-day.
Funds and on-chain data: US spot Bitcoin ETFs continued net inflows, with a single-day net inflow of $12.4 million overnight, with BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC maintaining slight increases; Grayscale’s GBTC net outflows continued to narrow, indicating long-term institutional accumulation remains, but short-term inflows slowed. The 24-hour total liquidation on derivatives markets shrank to $120 million, with long and short liquidations roughly balanced, indicating reduced leverage sentiment. On-chain data shows long-term holders’ proportion remains at a high of 68%, and exchange net outflows continue, indicating strong underlying holding stability without signs of concentrated selling. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 32, still in the fear zone, reflecting overall cautious market sentiment.

Key ranges:
Core support at $74,500–$75,000 (intraday consolidation zone), strong support at $72,000–$73,000 (breakout level of this rally);
Core resistance at $77,000–$77,500, strong resistance at $80,000 round number.

Special Reminders
Gold is currently in an oversold recovery cycle after a sharp decline, with the $4,700 level as a short-term bull-bear dividing line. The Fed’s high-interest-rate environment has not fundamentally shifted, and geopolitical uncertainties remain, so high volatility risks persist. Do not blindly buy the dip or go against the trend; $4,750 above has become a short-term strong resistance zone. Beware of a rebound failing and a second downward move. It’s recommended to hold a light position, only trying small longs if the price stabilizes in the support zone of $4,690–$4,700, with strict stop-loss at $4,650. Consider taking profits on rallies above $4,750. Maintain strict position control to avoid risks from uncertainties.

The crypto rebound has entered a high-level consolidation phase. The $75,000 level is a short-term critical support. Although underlying holdings are stable, institutional inflows are slowing, and market sentiment remains cautious. The mid-term upward trend still requires more capital confirmation. Do not chase high positions or gamble at the top; keep positions below 30%. Only consider small-scale additions after a volume breakout above $77,500 resistance. If the price drops below $75,000 again, be alert to short-term correction risks, reduce positions timely, and prioritize waiting.