It's another energetic week 🔥, combining this week's major events and news, let's analyze the upcoming Bitcoin trend and projections 🚀

Main events and news (April 20-27)
①Bitcoin 2026: Held from April 27-29 in Las Vegas, expected to have over 40k attendees, with Michael Saylor, senior SEC/CFTC officials, and others present. Historically, such conferences often bring institutional adoption, regulatory favorable news, and narrative catalysts, potentially creating positive sentiment in the second half of this week.

②FOMC Meeting: April 28-29. The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged, with market focus on the dot plot and Powell’s statements. Historical data shows that in 8 out of the last 9 FOMC meetings, Bitcoin experienced a "sell the news" correction afterward, and the market may be pricing in this risk in advance this week.

③On April 20, Tennessee's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill will hold a hearing;
On April 21, the hearing for Fed Chair nominee Waller is scheduled.

④Hong Kong Web3 Festival opens today (limited impact); geopolitical tensions (U.S.-Iran tensions pushing oil prices higher) still suppress risk assets; MicroStrategy, BlackRock, and others continue buying, partially offsetting selling pressure.

Technical analysis:
①7-day moving average profit realization chart shows recent profit-taking pressure, but the overall trend remains supported by institutions (Chart 1).

②Bitcoin ETF share supply chart reflects an increasing proportion of long-term institutional holdings (Chart 2).

③Polymarket indicates a 75-77% probability of a "drop" on April 20, reflecting short-term cautious sentiment. Currently, the position is still oscillating at the weekly level; at this level, downward space isn't very large, and it will continue to fluctuate within a broad range. During recovery periods, it will still be in the 70,000 to 75,000 range. Next, watch the range between 73,700 and 75,500, which has formed a short-term central platform. If the price continues to stay below 75,500 without breaking through, pay attention to a potential head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart, with support around 70,800. In summary, there is room for short-term pullback and correction, but I personally believe Tuesday to Wednesday this week still presents buying opportunities.
Support: 73,600-70,800
Resistance: 75,500-78,000