$BTC New highs in U.S. stocks ≠ a Bitcoin bull comeback—I’ve eaten this bowl of noodles before.

Watching U.S. stocks rise every day, many crypto friends are once again shouting for a bull comeback—doesn’t this script feel familiar?

Just like in this bull market, when BTC kept charging higher—how many people thought the altcoins would follow? What happened then?

I’ve taken losses before, so today I’ll say something harsh: don’t take the optimistic mood in U.S. stocks as a reason to go long on Bitcoin.

It’s clear once you look at the trading volume.

Since BTC entered a bearish phase, the volume during sell-offs has been far larger than the volume during rebounds. Especially in the past three weeks, the rebound trading volume over a three-day timeframe is pitifully weak.

With this buy-side pressure, does it look like a bull comeback?

The truth is often against human nature: the optimism sparked by new highs in U.S. stocks is exactly the most comfortable distribution ground for the main players.

Retail investors think, “Things are good overseas, so BTC should surge,” and the main players are happily dumping the goods onto you.

This isn’t a bull comeback—it’s a trap to lure more buyers.

My strategy stays the same: no real breakout with volume—don’t chase.

A rebound on shrinking volume—just watch.