Let's start with the weekly trend:


This week, due to progress in negotiations between Iran and the United States, the news directly triggered a strong bullish rally! Currently, we've had three consecutive positive weeks, decisively breaking through the long-standing downward trend line that had been holding us back, and also drawing a W bottom.
Now, the price is just at the neckline of the W bottom—around 2400. If it can surge through in one go, based on a 1:1 measurement, it could potentially reach about 2800 above.
As long as it doesn't fall back below that downward trend line later, the bullish trend can still continue, and overall, it remains relatively strong.
However, there is a slight issue with volume: the weekly volume has been shrinking, and up to now (Tuesday), there hasn't been a clear increase in volume. We need to see if the volume can pick up in the coming days; otherwise, there's a risk of a false breakout.
Other indicators are also looking decent:
The Bollinger Bands are still within the downward channel, with the middle band at 2400 coinciding with the neckline, serving as a clear resistance.
On the Fibonacci levels, 2400 is at 0.382, 2600 at 0.5 (resonating with the previous lower shadow), 2800 at 0.618, and 2150 can be used as a stop-loss reference for long positions.
The MACD is starting to turn bullish from a bearish crossover below, RSI has bounced up from the oversold zone (the last time it was at this level was when ETH was at 1384), and KDJ has also moved upward from the midline, showing overall momentum.
Looking at the daily chart, things are less relaxed in the short term:
Yesterday’s strong bullish candle was mainly driven by news sentiment. The key now is whether ETH can hold above 2400.
Here, there's a double resistance at the weekly and daily levels:
1. The daily TD sequence has already given a bearish signal at 2400; last time at this level, the correction was quite severe.
2. The Vegas system is similar; around 2500 is a typical shorting zone, and we are approaching it now.
The next support is around 2200 (the downward trend line plus the lower boundary of the ascending channel), so if you want to go long, set your stop-loss at 2150—if it doesn't break, stay bullish; if it does, admit defeat.
On the secondary indicators: RSI and KDJ are both in overbought zones, signaling a possible pullback (the last time at this level, the correction was quite significant), MACD is also oscillating without a clear direction. So, in the short term, there's a fairly high probability of a pullback around 2400.
Finally, I’ll give you two clear scenarios:
1. Bullish scenario (most likely main line):
A normal pullback at 2400 resistance, as long as it doesn't break below 2200 (with a stop-loss at 2150), then buy on dips and aim for a push to 2800.
2. Bearish scenario (risk case):
If 2400 can't hold and the price drops sharply below 2150, the bulls are completely out, and it will return to the bottom of the consolidation zone.
In summary:
ETH currently shows some bullish signs on the weekly chart, but the daily chart is stuck firmly at the 2400 level. A volume breakout would continue the bullish trend; if not, a correction is likely.
Operationally, strictly set your stop-loss at 2150, keep your position size moderate, and wait for signals before acting.
ETH-1,2%
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