$BTC 4.13 Midday Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis and Trading Suggestions

From the current chart perspective, the 4-hour price has briefly touched the lower support zone and then rebounded, but the rebound strength is clearly insufficient, indicating a typical downward consolidation pattern. The so-called "break below the upward trendline" was not a false breakout but an effective breakdown—price has repeatedly failed to regain above the trendline, and the rebound highs are gradually declining, which is a clear sign of weakening trend.

The market is not passively weakening but is the result of continuous active selling pressure: indicators have formed a death cross from high levels, the MACD momentum histogram has turned negative and is gradually expanding, and the bearish momentum has just begun to release, far from exhaustion. The so-called "overbought zone" actually indicates that bullish momentum is overextended; the current pullback is a correction of the previous excessive rise, and both the correction magnitude and duration are insufficient, leaving room for further decline. Although support appears solid below, it has been tested multiple times and its strength is gradually weakening. Once broken, it will trigger a cascade of selling and panic selling.

The upward trend structure has been broken, and any rebound now should be viewed as a trap to lure in shorts before a decline. In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended to abandon the hope of bottom fishing and focus on shorting during rebounds, paying close attention to trendline resistance and the breakdown of previous support levels. If the rebound shows no strength, you can directly pursue short positions. #原油价格上涨