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The atmosphere of this period in the cryptocurrency market is truly interesting. Looking at Bitwise's latest report, the current 27 core sentiment indicators are almost identical to the psychological state experienced during the major declines in 2018 and 2022. In other words, the warning signs of peak concern may actually indicate that the bottom is approaching.
BTC dropped to $60,000 last week — the lowest level in 16 months. In a 72-hour period, $5.4 billion in liquidations occurred. It is currently trading around $70,930, but this movement is driven by macroeconomic pressures: Fed policies are tightening, large outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are happening, and tech stocks are under similar pressure.
But the point emphasized by Bitwise is interesting. Even though prices are falling, the fundamentals of the market have not changed. Wall Street's integration with blockchain continues. Stablecoins are rising, tokenization is accelerating, and new developments are emerging at the intersection of artificial intelligence and crypto. These advancements are not yet reflected in prices.
Looking at past periods is instructive. Investors who bought at the bottom in 2018 saw approximately 2,000x returns. Positions entered at the bottom in 2022 gained 300x over three years. For those with a long-term perspective, this suggests that the current anxious sentiment period could be an opportunity.
Bitwise's identified potential triggers include: passage of the CLARITY Act, increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, a reversal in risk appetite, and breakthroughs in artificial intelligence. Even without a sudden shock, the market is gradually forming a bottom. Patience and a long-term focus seem to be the most sensible strategies at this point. During such periods in the crypto market, paying attention to fundamental events is more important than chasing quick gains.