Analyst Insights: RIVER (RIVERUSDT) Price Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoint: Extremely weak; a rebound is a selling opportunity. The bearish trend is clear, and it’s not recommended to try to bottom-fish from the left side.

1. Market Status and Technical Formation
RIVER is currently in a deep bear-market structure. The price has fallen more than **90%** from the historical high of $87.73, and is now quoted at **$8.45**, having completely broken through all key moving average systems. Although there has been technical resistance around $7.85 recently, and the MACD shows bearish momentum weakening, this kind of “low-volume rebound,” without support from incremental capital, is typically viewed as a downtrend continuation pattern.

2. Key Support and Resistance

· Important Support: the $7.80 - $8.00 range. This is the last line of defense for bulls in the short term. If the daily candle body closes below this zone, the downside will open up to $6.50** even **$5.50.
· Key Resistance: the $10.50 - $11.00 area. This level is formed from a previous swing low, and it also overlaps with the 4-hour MA50, meaning selling pressure is extremely heavy. Until the price effectively breaks through this area, any rise should be treated as a rebound.

3. Capital Flows and Position Structure
The capital chain is showing dangerous signals. The market is displaying a “one-sided” “crowded whale shorts” pattern: large whales have already set up short positions during the prior selloff and are in profit. At the same time, due to token initial allocations unlocking, the market continues to face potential sell pressure from 80.4% of the supply that remains uncirculated—this is the fundamental reason the price cannot form a reversal.

4. News-Driven Disturbance
Although River recently officially announced its listing on Hyperliquid and pushed forward PTS redemption mechanism optimizations in an attempt to boost confidence, the market’s response is numb, and the positive news is quickly digested. The team’s buyback actions have not been able to block the trend; instead, they are viewed as liquidity exits by major holders trimming positions.

5. Trading Recommendations

· Trend Traders: Maintain a bearish mindset. If the price rebounds back to the 9.50-10.00 range, you can build short positions in batches, with a stop-loss set above 10.80.
· Aggressive Short-term: If the price pulls back again near 7.85 and shows signs of stabilization, you can try a small long position, but you must strictly set a stop-loss; the target is only around 8.80 for a quick in-and-out.
· Watch and Wait: Continue to wait. Don’t guess the bottom or catch the dip. You need to wait until the price regains the 11.00 integer level or after a massive panic selloff (a spike-and-retrace via wick) occurs, before right-side trading conditions are in place.#Gate上线Pre-IPOs