You know, Michael Burry is once again stoking debate on X, comparing the current Bitcoin slump to the 2022 crash. This type constantly looks for parallels in market chaos to back up his pessimistic forecasts.

On Thursday, Burry shared a chart showing similarities between BTC’s fall from an October peak of around $126 thousand to $70 thousand and the collapse at the end of 2021–2022. On his chart, the patterns allegedly line up perfectly. If you apply the proportions of that decline to today’s prices, it would create a risk of moving toward $50 thousand. That sounds terrifying, but let’s break it down.

The problem is that Burry and people like him like to force historical patterns into the current situation, ignoring conditions that are fundamentally different. The prior bear market unfolded amid aggressive ФРС policy, crypto leverage collapses, and chaos at the retail level. Right now, the situation is completely different. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, deep institutional liquidity, macroeconomics dependent on stocks, commodities, and artificial intelligence—these are not the same as before.

Traders and analysts are rightly asking: can what happened be considered a закономірність if it has only happened once? Skepticism is entirely justified. Burry’s history adds weight to the discussion, but his forecasts are often contradictory. His approach is more about shifts in market psychology than about exact target levels.

Bitcoin is fluctuating this week—it dipped below $71 thousand, then rebounded, then fell again amid global risk appetite. The current price is around $73 thousand. So the situation is tense, but far from critical.

Overall, it’s worth listening to Burry, but not as the ultimate truth. His role is more of a warning about possible failed rebounds and weakened confidence than a precise forecast. The market is shaped by far more complex factors than just historical analogies.