Federal Reserve Decision Uncertainty: The probabilities of rate hikes and cuts are surging! The current market is filled with attention on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s April rate hike and the future path of interest rates. According to the latest market expectations, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in April is only 1.6%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is as high as 98.4%, showing the Federal Reserve’s high level of caution. However, the focus is no longer just on April. For the June interest rate adjustment, market expectations are even more convoluted. The current probabilities show that the likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 2.1%, the probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged is 96.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is only 1.5%.