This has a 100% record.

Every single time in the last 23 years that PMI has entered expansion, after contraction, it has signalled the start of a heavy risk on period for markets.
I've used Russell 2000 here to take us back to 2003 as Bitcoin was not launched then.
Russell is a good proxy for Bitcoin as it is high risk small cap stocks.
You can see very clearly that it has never been about a certain based time cycle.
If Bitcoin was alive in 2003 it would have gone on a multi year bull phase too, just like Russell did.
Its not about time, its about overall macro.
Just how this cycle we have had the longest period of PMI contraction ever, and also the weakest cycle so far, ever.
These things are not coincidences. They are completely linked.
Bitcoin is not governed by some time based theory that is rooted in nothing... it is governed by macro.
It just so happens that the previous two cycles worked in a 4 year trend.
But that does not mean this one will, and anyone blindly believing it needs to be fully aware that the chances that the bottom plays out the exact again this time...
Is very slim.