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So here's something that caught my attention. Spotify just posted one of its best years on record - 751 million monthly active users, $20.4 billion in revenue, and nearly $2.6 billion in profit up 94% year-over-year. Yet the stock got absolutely hammered, down 40% from its peak. Classic market disconnect, right?
Let me break down what's actually happening here. The company crushed it in 2025. Premium subscribers hit 290 million, and these paying users account for 89% of total revenue since ads don't move the needle much. Management even managed to trim operating expenses by 2% while scaling the business - that's solid execution for a tech platform that usually bleeds money early on.
But here's the thing about that stock dip - it might actually be the interesting part of this story. When Spotify peaked, its price-to-sales ratio hit an insane 9.2, more than double its historical average of 4.3. Now that the stock has sold off hard, that P/S ratio compressed to 4.9. Still above average, but way more reasonable. And at a P/E of 36.7, yeah it's trading at a premium to the Nasdaq-100, but consider this: only 3.5% of the world's population currently has a Spotify Premium subscription. Co-CEO Alex Norström thinks that could realistically hit 10-15% down the road. If he's right, the business could be 3-4x bigger from here.
I've been watching how they're pivoting too. Beyond the core music streaming, they're going hard on AI features - their Prompted Playlist tool is actually clever, letting users control recommendation algorithms through a chatbot interface. And video podcasts? They added over 530,000 in the past year with consumption up 90%. That's not just a content play, that's engagement fuel.
So when I see a stock dip this sharp on a company with this kind of momentum, I think it's worth asking whether the market overreacted. The valuation is finally reasonable after trading at bubble levels. The fundamentals are strong. The growth runway is genuinely there. For anyone thinking about nibbling on this stock dip, the long-term thesis looks pretty solid if you're willing to hold for years.