Institution: The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice this year to support the labor market

Golden Finance reports that on April 4, according to the Oxford Economics Institute, the U.S. March employment figures greatly overstate the strength of the pre-war job market, because the data also show that both the labor force and the number of people employed in households have declined. As the Iran war affects real economic activity, job growth will slow. The war’s impact on inflation is immediate, but its negative effects on consumer spending, business investment, and hiring will become more clearly evident over the next few months. The Oxford Economics Institute’s baseline forecast still is that the Federal Reserve will ignore the one-off shock from an increase in oil prices this year and cut interest rates twice to guard against any potential weakening in the labor market in the future.