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The impact of escalating war on the crypto market:

Short-term (initial phase of conflict outbreak or escalation):

Risk asset sell-off: Market risk appetite plummets, leveraged positions are forced to close, leading to declines or sharp volatility in mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), etc. Altcoins, MEME coins, DeFi tokens, and others may experience even larger drops.
Increased demand for stablecoins: USDT, USDC, and other stablecoins see rising demand due to liquidity needs, with potential premiums.

Medium-term (ongoing conflict phase):

Narrative divergence: If the conflict results in restrictions on international settlements, currency devaluation, or increased capital controls, Bitcoin’s narrative as a “non-sovereign asset” for hedging may be reactivated, but prices may not immediately rise; instead, structural demand may increase.
On-chain financial demand rises: Traditional financial systems come under pressure, cross-border payments face obstacles, and demand for stablecoins and on-chain settlement may further increase.

Long-term (prolonged conflict or complex situation):

Regulatory tightening risk: In wartime, regulations may be strengthened under the guise of “national security,” affecting privacy tools, mixers, DeFi frontends, etc., impacting the compliance and operation of some crypto projects.
Energy and mining impacts: If the conflict involves energy-critical regions, rising oil prices could increase mining costs, leading to marginal miners exiting and accelerating centralization trends in mining.

Mainstream currency deployment strategies:

Mainstream safe-haven assets:

Bitcoin (BTC): As the “digital gold” of the crypto market, during prolonged conflict phases, if fiat currency credit deteriorates or capital controls tighten, it may gain a premium due to hedging demand, but short-term volatility risks should be noted.
Ethereum (ETH): Although highly volatile in the short term, as a smart contract platform, it may benefit from increased on-chain financial demand if the ecosystem develops, depending on specific conflict scenarios.

Stablecoins:

USDT, USDC: In the initial and medium phases of conflict, due to rising liquidity needs, they can serve as hedging and trading mediums, but the compliance and reserves of issuers should be monitored.

On-chain finance and infrastructure:

DeFi tokens (e.g., UNI, AAVE): If traditional financial systems are under pressure, on-chain financial demand may rise, benefiting some DeFi projects involved in cross-border payments, lending, etc., but selection should favor projects with good compliance and liquidity.
Privacy tokens (e.g., XMR, ZEC): Under tightening regulations, privacy needs may increase, but regulatory risks should be considered; suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance.

Precautions:

The impact of war on the crypto market is highly uncertain and should be assessed comprehensively based on specific conflict scenarios, regulatory policies, and market sentiment.
Investing in crypto assets carries high risks. It is recommended to allocate positions reasonably according to personal risk tolerance, avoid excessive leverage, and focus on risk management and long-term perspectives.