Powell appears tonight: Middle East tensions combined with inflation pressures, and the rate cut expectations are once again under scrutiny

Mars Finance news: On March 30, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will attend a public event and take live questions tonight at 22:30 Beijing time. Against the backdrop of continued heightened tensions in the Middle East situation and increased market volatility, this address is seen as one of the most closely watched macro events of the week. The market generally expects that Powell will likely maintain a cautious stance, avoiding giving clear signals on the interest-rate cut path. With current inflation still above the 2% target, alongside uncertainty boosted by tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the near term is rising, and expectations of “no rate cuts” are continuing to strengthen. Meanwhile, tensions between US President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve are still ongoing. If Powell releases a more hawkish or wait-and-see signal, the market expects Trump may apply pressure again, intensifying the policy standoff. On the fundamentals side, the US job market has shown signs of weakening: February saw a sharp decline in new jobs, and the economic outlook is under pressure, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma of “high inflation + slowing growth.” Analysts note that before the Middle East situation becomes clear, monetary policy will most likely remain on hold, and market performance will continue to depend heavily on changes in geopolitical developments and the inflation path.