#震荡行情交易策略

Weekend will be characterized by oscillations and rebounds. Next week, closely monitor the developments of the US-Iran conflict.

Bitcoin: A rebound is imminent; the rebound could be a good opportunity to open short positions.

After a previous dip, Bitcoin's weekend trading has entered a phase of consolidation. From the perspective of market forces, the bearish momentum has weakened, and short-term rebound demand is building. Combining technical and capital flow signals, I am optimistic that Bitcoin will see a rebound over the weekend, with a target around $67,700. This level converges three technical resistances: ① 30-day moving average resistance ② Bollinger middle band dynamic pressure ③ Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level.

From technical indicators, on the hourly chart, Bitcoin's RSI has entered oversold territory and shows signs of turning upward. The MACD green bars are also shrinking, indicating that short-term downside momentum is weakening and a rebound is imminent. Additionally, from the capital flow perspective, on-chain funds have been flowing in over the past 24 hours, supporting a price rebound.

However, it is important to recognize that this rebound is mainly a technical correction rather than the start of a trend reversal. The market still faces many uncertainties, and macro-level pressures have not been fully released. Therefore, when Bitcoin approaches $67,700, it might be an excellent opportunity to open short positions.

Short-term long positions: Entry around $66,500

Take profit around $67,700

Stop loss around $65,900

Mid-term short positions: Entry around $67,700

Stop loss around $69,100

Crude Oil: Escalating Middle East conflict may lead to ground warfare, potentially pushing prices higher

Over the weekend, US Marine Corps and amphibious assault ships have been deployed to the Middle East, significantly increasing the risk of ground combat, which directly impacts global oil supply. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, has seen shipping volume drop over 90%, nearly halting, preventing Gulf oil producers from exporting crude, and expanding the global supply gap to millions of barrels per day. Oil prices still have room to rise further. Consider placing some #XTI perpetual long contracts over the weekend or entering long positions on dips on Monday, with proper stop-losses in place.

Key support levels: First support at $96

Second support at $90

First resistance at $110

Second resistance near previous high at $120

SIREN: Can be shorted with light positions, set stop-losses carefully

Bitcoin's weekend sideways movement shifts my focus to altcoins. Recently hot SIREN has caught my attention. I opened a short at 1.92, currently holding profits with a stop-loss above 2.06. The daily chart of SIREN shows a double-top pattern, with the neckline broken at 1.85, accompanied by increasing volume. Above 2.69, there are many stop-loss orders and trapped positions, forming a "dammed lake" on the technical chart. Currently, the main force is oscillating between $0.7 and $2.0. This range offers opportunities for high-probability swing trading—buy low and sell high within this zone.

Looking ahead to next week: US-Iran conflict and Non-Farm Payroll data will be the key variables.

Regarding next week's cryptocurrency market outlook, the US-Iran war situation will be a core factor influencing market direction. Over the weekend, the US has dispatched the amphibious assault ship "Littoral Combat Ship" and 3,500 Marines to the Middle East, sharply increasing the risk of ground invasion. If the US opts for a ground attack, geopolitical risks in the Middle East will escalate rapidly, impacting global financial markets. As risk assets, cryptocurrencies are likely to experience a downward correction. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are expected to rise accordingly.

Additionally, the March Non-Farm Payrolls report scheduled for next Friday will be a market "nuclear bomb." With rising global inflation expectations and calls for rate hikes in the US, if the data exceeds expectations, it indicates a resilient US economy, which is bearish for gold and cryptocurrencies, and increases rate hike expectations, slightly supporting crude oil. Conversely, if the data falls short, it suggests the US economy may be entering stagflation, which is bullish for gold and cryptocurrencies, and reduces rate hike expectations.