🎩 Thursday – another central bank day

The Federal Reserve set the tone yesterday: stagflationary SEP, hawkish bias, the window for correction is closing. Today, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan take up the baton – and the question is no longer whether to respond to the Iranian narrative, but through which assets.
The background this morning confirms the direction. WTI is again approaching $100, while Brent broke above $110 yesterday. The Iranian strike on Qatar Energy, the largest gas exporter, triggered another jump in gas prices in Europe. Energy pressure is not easing, but intensifying.
Against this backdrop, today's ECB meeting looks the most problematic of the three.
Europe is bearing the brunt of the energy shock, inflation expectations are rising, and the ECB is caught between the need to react and the fear of making a mistake – as in 2008 and 2022. Any sign of uncertainty from Lagarde puts pressure on the euro.
The Bank of Japan has already retired, and Ueda, as expected, took a soft stance, emphasizing the need to monitor the situation. This is a negative signal for the yen: a weak currency with high oil prices is a painful combination for Japan, but the BOJ is not yet ready to act.
In summary, the focus is on currencies: EURUSD short and USDJPY long look like the purest expression of the current narrative.
As for the stock market, as a reminder, the focus is on the real sector. DAX, FTSE, Dow Jones, Nikkei—the basket we outlined earlier—continues to hold. Energy exposure + stagflation risks + monetary uncertainty—all are in place.
We're following Lagarde's press conference and the market reaction to the SEP.
#finance #economy