March 18 Bitcoin Daily Report #美联储利率决议

Bitcoin's uptrend has temporarily paused ahead of the interest rate decision. Yesterday's overnight short-term rally briefly broke through $75,000, then closed below $74,000, ending a streak of 8 consecutive days of gains.

The market's current focus remains on liquidity tightness. For instance, considering multiple central banks adopting tightening or more hawkish rhetoric, when Treasury yields rise, the bond market often captures a larger share of markets including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin may face downward pressure, and recent upward momentum could also be lost. Currently, if interest rates remain unchanged as market expectations suggest, traders may focus more on policy tone, dot plot, or forward guidance, quickly pricing in expectations for the coming weeks. Bitcoin's possible scenarios: 1. If the dot plot signals two rate cuts, Bitcoin may rally at least 3%, with prices potentially holding above $75,000. 2. If rates remain unchanged with no clear directional guidance, the market may experience brief profit-taking behavior, causing price pullback to retest the $70,000 psychological level. 3. If hawkish rhetoric is severe and simultaneously expresses concerns about oil price impacts on inflation, signaling no rate cuts this year, Bitcoin may retreat toward the $65,000 region.

Technical Outlook: Multiple indicators show that bullish momentum is weakening, with the market entering a brief neutral phase and short-term consolidation or directional hesitation. Key Levels: $78,800 key structural resistance—if breached, it could trigger a structural shift and establish a stronger bullish pattern for the coming weeks. $70,200 psychological level, as this price coincides with the 50-period moving average. If price cannot move away from this level, most of the market will again fall into hesitant consolidation, limiting further gains.