#美伊局势影响 The impact of US-Israeli joint military strikes on the crypto market is not simply a linear logic of “risk shock—price decline,” but rather through three core pathways: liquidity transmission, capital rotation, and narrative switching, which profoundly alter the market’s short-term operational structure.
1. Liquidity Transmission: 24-Hour Trading as a Short-Term “Pressure Valve”
The timing of the military strike coincides with the closure of traditional markets such as US stocks and commodities. The unique 24-hour trading characteristic of the crypto market makes it the only immediate outlet for global funds to digest sudden geopolitical risks. A large amount of safe-haven capital is rapidly withdrawing from high-risk assets, and Bitcoin, as the most liquid asset in the crypto market, naturally assumes the role of “liquidity pressure valve,” becoming the main recipient of selling pressure. This is also a core reason for the initial sharp price drop. Meanwhile, risk aversion drives the US dollar index to a near two-month high, further increasing short-term pressure on crypto assets. When traditional financial markets reopen, the capital outflow pressure eases, and the crypto market quickly reverts to its core operational logic. Notably, Iran’s widespread internet outages have caused local crypto markets to stagnate, with Bitcoin’s hash rate, which accounts for 4%-7% of the global total, facing electricity supply risks, temporarily shaking investor confidence.
2. Capital Rotation: Compliance-Backed Assets and Tokenized Commodities as Core Flows
In this geopolitical event, the flow of funds in the crypto market shows a clear stratification, breaking the previous pattern of “widespread decline across all sectors.” Demand for compliant stablecoins surged. During panic selling, large amounts of capital flooded into stablecoin products backed by sovereignty and with clear compliance frameworks. Coinciding with the countdown to the first stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong, and with the US CLARITY Act progressing, market trust in “pegged value” compliant tools continued to rise, making stablecoins the primary choice for temporary safe-haven funds. Among them, on-chain trading volume of US dollar stablecoins reached $1.16 trillion within 48 hours, a 38% increase compared to before the conflict. However, USDC, bound by US sanctions rules, saw a 13% decrease in circulation in the Middle East, while USDT, with less transparency in reserves and used to evade sanctions, saw a 32% increase in regional trading volume. Tokenized gold became the biggest highlight, with a total market cap surpassing $6 billion by February 2026, adding about $2 billion this year, backed by over 1.2 million ounces of physical gold. After the conflict erupted, open interest in tokenized gold contracts steadily increased, approaching the historic high of $5,600 per ounce in spot gold. Many investors used perpetual contracts within the crypto ecosystem to hedge risks during traditional commodity market closures. This “crypto vehicle + traditional commodity” hedging mode has become a new market dynamic emerging from this conflict. Sector differentiation further intensified, with small- and mid-cap coins falling more than 4% on average, while leading compliant assets like BTC and ETH demonstrated resilience. Bitcoin’s market dominance remained around 58.6%, with a clear trend of capital flowing toward top-tier compliant assets.
3. Narrative Switching: “Inflation Hedge + Compliance” Logic Replaces Traditional Perceptions
This conflict also broke the traditional narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold.” In the early stages, Bitcoin and gold showed a brief divergence, with global gold ETFs attracting $19 billion in a single month, while Bitcoin experienced a short-term decline. Data shows that since September 2025, their correlation has fallen to a four-year low of -0.7. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility is about 52%, 3-4 times that of gold, and its high-risk nature keeps its correlation with tech stocks high at 0.73, indicating it has not yet gained the resilience typical of traditional safe-haven assets. As the market gradually recovers, the narrative logic has undergone a crucial shift. Investors’ focus has shifted from “geopolitical safe-haven” to the inflation expectations triggered by the conflict. Iran has officially announced a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global oil transportation and 27% of maritime oil trade. The conflict has caused Brent crude oil prices to surge to $82.37 per barrel, and shipping low-sulfur fuel oil prices have risen significantly compared to pre-conflict levels. The global energy supply chain has been paralyzed, and inflationary pressures continue to mount. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s role as an “inflation hedge” and “decentralized store of value” has been reinforced. Meanwhile, the global trend of crypto regulation cooperation is making “compliance” the core underlying logic supporting asset prices. Short-term geopolitical shocks have not shaken the long-term development trend of industry normalization and mainstream adoption.
The market turbulence caused by the US-Israel joint military strike is essentially a necessary test in the process of the crypto market’s transition from a “high-volatility speculative track” to a “mature asset class.” The clear outcome of this test shows that: leverage has been fully deleveraged, resilience to shocks has significantly improved; the capital structure continues to optimize, with compliant assets becoming the core anchors of the market; and narrative logic is becoming increasingly clear, with long-term fundamentals being the key to market direction. In the short term, the market will still be influenced by the ongoing developments of the conflict, the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, and changes in US dollar liquidity. $65,000 will be a key support level for Bitcoin; if it can hold this range, it may attempt to challenge the $74,000 zone.
From a long-term perspective, the short-term impacts of geopolitical conflicts will eventually fade. The future of the industry will be determined by the clarification of global regulatory frameworks, the normalization of institutional allocations, the deepening of asset tokenization, and the integration of AI and blockchain technologies into industries. For market participants, this event also offers important insights: in an era of frequent geopolitical risks, participating in the crypto market requires abandoning the “safe-haven myth,” focusing on compliant assets, strictly controlling leverage, and closely monitoring changes in the global energy supply chain and geopolitical landscape, viewing industry development and changes with a long-term, rational perspective.
