#加密市场上涨

Bitcoin makes a strong comeback. Watch out for take-profit levels at this point.

In the past couple of days, Bitcoin has finally surged significantly. Yesterday, Bitcoin broke through $70,000, and today it even reached a high of nearly $74,000, with an intraday increase of 7.21%. Ethereum approached $2,200. The market is buzzing with optimism. Is a new round of bullish trend about to unfold? I believe there is still room for short-term gains, but caution is needed for the medium term. Rising prices are an opportunity for long-term traders to take profits, not a signal to chase the market.

👉 Why did Bitcoin suddenly rise while the US and Iran are fighting fiercely?

I think this round of Bitcoin’s rise is driven by a combination of long-term price suppression and capital inflows. On one hand, since breaking below $93,000, the price has been trending downward with hardly any significant rebounds, indicating long-term suppression and a demand for a rebound. Currently, Bitcoin’s daily chart has successfully broken out of the downtrend channel since February 9. On the 6-hour and 4-hour charts, a clear bullish trend has formed. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages on the daily chart have formed a golden cross, and short-term moving averages are turning upward, indicating that bulls are dominating the market. On the other hand, recent gains in gold and silver prices have been under pressure, with funds flowing out of precious metals markets. Investors are eager to find new value investment opportunities. Cryptocurrency, after sufficient adjustment, has become attractive to capital. The recent acceleration of on-chain fund inflows supports this view, with over 1,000 individual transactions above $5 million recorded last night.

👉 So, has the market reversed? Is a new wave of bullish trend starting? I think caution is still necessary for two reasons:

1. The overall cryptocurrency market remains in a bear market:

Since Bitcoin broke below the key psychological level of 100,000 and the long-term weekly moving averages, it has entered a technical bear market. This trend has not changed yet. Therefore, each recent rise is a technical rebound after oversold conditions, not a reversal.

2. The news sentiment remains mostly negative:

The US-Iran conflict is still intense: Tensions between the US and Iran remain high, putting pressure on risk assets. Some may say that Bitcoin’s rebound under these circumstances indicates a return to its role as “digital gold.” However, it’s important to note that market perception of assets cannot change quickly. Currently, this is just a risk asset rebound after digesting negative news. The decline in gold markets also reflects this point.

The Federal Reserve’s future rate cut path remains unclear:

The market currently assigns an 86.5% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the March meeting. The Fed has paused its rate cuts since September 2025, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The high-interest-rate environment persists, with the US dollar and Treasury yields remaining high, continuing to pressure high-risk assets like Bitcoin.

👉 Key levels to watch:

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken above the 30-day moving average resistance and is moving up along the upper Bollinger Band. The MACD histogram is expanding, signaling an acceleration in the rally. In the short term, the next resistance level is around 78,600, which coincides with the 10-week moving average. If this level is broken, it’s worth considering whether Bitcoin can break the $80,000 psychological barrier. However, once the price reaches around 78,600, it should be seen as a profit-taking opportunity rather than a chance to add positions and gamble on breaking $80,000.

Support levels are as follows: the first support is near the previous top-bottom reversal point at around $70,000; the second support is near the MA5 at approximately $69,500. If this level is broken, long positions should consider stop-losses.

👉 My trading strategy:

Buy the dip above $70,000 for Bitcoin and Ethereum, with about 50% position size, and set a stop-loss at $69,900.

Given the current liquidity shortage in the crypto market, strong Bitcoin and Ethereum may exert a draining effect on altcoins. It’s advisable to reduce altcoin speculation and focus more capital on Bitcoin and Ethereum.

What are your thoughts on the market? How do you plan to position yourself today? Feel free to leave comments and share. Wishing everyone a prosperous Year of the Horse, and may you get rich every day!