#加密市场观察 Global Overview on March 4: US-Iran Conflict Continues to Escalate, Cryptocurrency Markets Experience Wide Fluctuations

As of 2:00 PM on March 4, the US-Iran conflict has entered its fifth day, with the Middle East situation tightening across the board; the crypto market is resonating with geopolitical and capital flow expectations, showing high volatility. This article provides a quick overview of the core developments, balancing facts and market impact.

US-Iran Situation: Full Confrontation, Energy Routes in Danger
The US and Israel launched an "Epic Fire" joint airstrike, targeting over 2,000 sites across 24 provinces in Iran, including the Revolutionary Guard headquarters and Natanz nuclear facility. Iranian naval forces were damaged. Iran launched a "True Commitment-4" counterattack, conducting 16 rounds of saturation strikes covering 27 US military bases across 9 Middle Eastern countries, and fully blockading the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting approximately 20%-30% of global oil transportation, with shipping nearly halted. There are significant discrepancies in the official reports: Iran reports 787 deaths and 1,432 injuries; the US confirms 6 soldiers killed and denies any damage to aircraft carriers. Hezbollah and Houthi forces in Lebanon also intervened simultaneously. The Israeli military entered southern Lebanon, increasing the risk of regional spillover. The UN called for a ceasefire, but diplomatic negotiations have yet to make substantial progress. Oil prices surged sharply, and market risk aversion increased.

Crypto Market News: Volatile Upward Trend, Halving and ETFs as Main Drivers
The total market capitalization of global cryptocurrencies is approximately $2.32 trillion, up 1.11% in 24 hours. Bitcoin briefly surged above $67,000 before pulling back, currently around $65,000, with a 24-hour increase of about 5.7% and an amplitude exceeding 8%. Ethereum is around $2,000, up 3.6%. Altcoins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu also saw broad gains. The core drivers include expectations of Bitcoin’s April halving and steady inflows into US spot ETFs. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations are fluctuating, coupled with Middle East tensions, leading to cautious capital flows and a market characterized by wide fluctuations.

Industry News: Visa to Launch Crypto Credit Cards in Over 100 Countries; US CFTC Chairman Says Perpetual Contracts Barriers Will Be Cleared in Weeks; Hong Kong Stablecoin License Imminent, Regulatory Benefits Materialize. Domestic regulators reaffirm: trading virtual currencies is illegal financial activity; offshore platforms are not allowed to provide services within China; participation in trading is not protected by law, risks are borne by participants.

Market Impact and Future Outlook
Geopolitical conflicts increase demand for safe-haven assets. Bitcoin is temporarily showing "digital gold" attributes, but high volatility increases the risk of chasing gains. Rising oil prices heighten inflation concerns and may delay the Federal Reserve’s rate cut pace, indirectly suppressing risk asset valuations. In terms of operations, short-term support for BTC is around $65,000, with resistance at $68,500–$69,000. Breaking through or falling below these levels could trigger accelerated market movements.

Overall, today’s market logic is a complex interplay of geopolitical safe-haven demand, halving expectations, and regulatory compliance. The US-Iran situation shows no signs of cooling down, and the crypto market remains highly sensitive to news. It is recommended to strictly control positions, implement risk management, and view short-term fluctuations rationally.