Analyst Warning: This Middle East crisis may be different this time; it is advised not to buy any dips immediately.

Odaily Planet Daily reported that as Iran launches missiles at U.S. military bases in Gulf cities, airlines suspend flights, and oil tankers carrying oil and other products halt passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation is becoming more chaotic. HanYa Investment Fixed Income Team Portfolio Manager Rong Ren Goh said that the tail risks in the Middle East have increased. The market will reprice itself, shifting from geopolitical shocks to regime risk shocks and long-term conflicts, not just retaliatory actions, unless Iran indicates willingness to negotiate. Analysts believe a greater risk lies in market complacency. The market has been assuming that the impact of the conflict will be limited and dismisses comparisons to Iran’s regime change in 1979. Barclays analysts stated that history strongly proves not to chase gains during conflicts, but to “sell the news.” However, it is concerning that investors have now become accustomed to the mindset of “selling the news,” potentially underestimating the risk of losing control. It is advised not to buy any dips immediately. If the stock market pulls back enough, for example, if the S&P 500 drops more than 10%, then a buying opportunity may arise. But not now. (Jin10)