Suspicious Polymarket Bets Earn $1.2M From ZachXBT’s Axiom Expose

Key Takeaways

• Strong signs of insider advantage emerged, with 8 of the top 10 most profitable wallets among 3,630+ participants earning over $1.2 million, showing patterns consistent with advance knowledge.

• Profits were highly concentrated among a small group. Three wallets made more than $100,000 each, including predictorxyz with $411,600, while 47 others earned between $10,000 and $100,000, highlighting asymmetric gains.

• Losses were significant for others, with 2 wallets losing over $100,000 and 50 more losing $10,000–$100,000, underscoring the risks of prediction markets when information access is unequal.

In an ironic twist that highlights crypto’s ongoing transparency challenges, new analysis suggests possible insider trading within a Polymarket prediction market that was itself betting on an insider trading exposé. Blockchain researcher DefiOasis.eth found that eight of the top ten most profitable wallets showed signs of advance knowledge, collectively earning more than $1.2 million.

ZachXBT’s Investigation into Axiom Exchange

On February 23, 2026, on-chain investigator ZachXBT hinted at a major insider trading probe, sparking widespread speculation. He released the full report on February 26, accusing employees at Axiom Exchange, a Solana-based decentralized trading platform, of misusing internal dashboards to access confidential wallet data and profit from insider-informed trades.

The report named senior business development employee Broox Bauer as a key figure. Evidence included dashboard screenshots, a recorded call discussing profit opportunities, and on-chain data linking related wallets to suspicious meme coin trades. The investigation, reportedly triggered by a whistleblower, raised serious concerns about Axiom’s internal access controls.

Prediction Market Activity Raises Red Flags

Speculation surrounding ZachXBT’s investigation fueled intense activity on Polymarket. A prediction market titled “Which crypto company will ZachXBT expose for insider trading?” attracted nearly $40 million in trading volume, with options including Axiom, Ethena, and OpenSea.

The market ultimately resolved in favor of Axiom at 100%. However, blockchain data revealed suspicious betting patterns. Several newly created wallets—many used exclusively for this single market—placed large bets on Axiom just hours before the report was released, converting modest investments into significant profits.

According to DefiOasis.eth, more than 3,630 wallets participated in betting on the Axiom outcome. Profit and loss distribution showed:

• 50.9% earned small profits between $0 and $1,000

• 38.0% recorded losses in the same range

Source: @defioasis (X)

While most traders saw modest results, a few wallets dominated the highest profit tiers.

Top Profiting Wallets Raise Insider Concerns

Three wallets earned over $100,000 each despite only participating in this market:

• predictorxyz: $411,600

• Wallet 2: $354,000

• Wallet 3: $144,000

Source: @defioasis (X)

These wallets, along with 47 others profiting between $10,000 and $100,000 (totaling $1.34 million), contributed to suspicions of leaked information. ZachXBT himself noted that he had reached out to Axiom for comment and conducted interviews prior to publication, which could have created opportunities for leaks.

On the flip side, losses were significant for some: two addresses suffered over $100,000 in deficits (totaling $366,000), and 50 more lost between $10,000 and $100,000 ($1.239 million combined). This asymmetry highlights the risks inherent in prediction markets, where information asymmetry can amplify gains for the informed at the expense of retail participants.

Axiom Responds and Industry Debate Grows

Axiom Exchange, a non-custodial platform launched in 2024 that has generated over $390 million in revenue and earned backing from Y Combinator, responded swiftly. The company expressed being “shocked and disappointed” by the allegations, revoked access to the implicated tools, and committed to a full internal review. While co-founders appeared unaware of the misconduct, the lack of robust monitoring was flagged as a critical vulnerability.

The incident has sparked broader discussions about the integrity of prediction markets. Polymarket, a platform where users bet on real-world events using cryptocurrency, has seen explosive growth but faces scrutiny over its vulnerability to manipulation. Critics argue that such markets, while innovative, can inadvertently reward the very behaviors they aim to predict— in this case, insider trading on an insider trading probe.

As DefiOasis shared the full dataset via a link in their post, analysts are encouraged to scrutinize the trades further. This event serves as a reminder that in the decentralized finance space, vigilance remains key—even when betting on vigilance itself.

Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

About Author: Nilesh Hembade is the Founder and Lead Author of Coinsprobe, with over 5 years of experience in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry. Since launching Coinsprobe in 2023, he has been providing daily, research-driven insights through in-depth market analysis, on-chain data, and technical research.