Americano-Iranian negotiations: how Iran, with its significant territory and strategic position, is preparing to confront the US

The world is closely watching the developments in the Persian Gulf. According to recent reports, the United States and Iran plan to hold critical negotiations in Oman, which is seen as an important move in geopolitics and military diplomacy. At first glance, the U.S. has a clear advantage: a powerful military machine, aircraft carriers in the region, and coalition forces. However, the game is much more complex than it appears. Despite international pressure, Iran has its trump cards that make the conflict less straightforward.

Geographical Advantage: Why a Ground Operation Is a Utopian Goal for the U.S.

Iran’s area is approximately 1.65 million square kilometers — a vast territory that creates serious problems for any aggressive army. History demonstrates this clearly. During Operation Desert Storm in 1991, the international coalition involved about 700,000 troops in Kuwait and Iraq. During the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the U.S. deployed around 300,000 personnel.

Iran is significantly larger than Iraq — four times bigger. To effectively control such a territory, the U.S. would need at least 800,000 ground troops. But Washington faces serious political and economic issues: they are simultaneously trying to compete with China and Russia, resolve internal conflicts, and the U.S. society is exhausted from prolonged foreign military operations. A ground war on this scale would be political suicide.

Even without deploying ground forces, the U.S. cannot defeat Iran solely with airstrikes. If the Iranian regime maintains internal stability and can prevent civil unrest, its position will remain strong. The country’s size provides it with natural protection.

Thousands of Missiles and Israel’s Strategic Deafness

Another trump card for Iran is its missile arsenal. Iran has declared the presence of thousands of missiles capable of delivering concentrated strikes on critical Israeli targets. Unlike large states, Israel is a small country with limited territory. The so-called “all eggs in one basket” — a dispersed network of critical infrastructure, energy facilities, and military bases.

Iranian missiles, on average, carry about one ton of munitions. Thousands of tons of ammunition could deliver devastating blows to neighboring infrastructure and significantly weaken its defense capabilities. This creates a dilemma for the U.S. and Israel: any direct conflict with Iran could have unpredictable consequences.

Global Energy and Strong Backing

The third trump card is the global energy policy and international support. The U.S. seeks to control world energy supplies. Among the top 10 countries by hydrocarbon reserves, the U.S. already has significant influence over seven. If the U.S. successfully suppresses Venezuela and Iran, controls the Houthi in Yemen, and establishes hegemony over the Panama Canal, it could monopolize global energy flows and maritime trade routes — the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, and major maritime corridors.

This would give Washington the borrowed right to regulate global energy prices and logistics. But other major powers understand this. That’s why Iran will not be left alone. To the north, it is connected with Russia and the Caspian trading system. To the southeast — with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. These guarantees make a quick U.S. victory unlikely. Iran can count on material and military support from influential allies.

Iran’s Chances in Negotiations

Considering these three strategic advantages, Iran should not negotiate from a position of weakness. The problem, however, lies not in objective capabilities but in political will and consistency. History shows that Iranian leadership often displays indecisiveness: demanding maximum in public statements but settling for minimum behind closed doors.

Recent reports about Iran’s willingness to accept nuclear sanctions by transferring several hundred kilograms of nuclear material indicate a soft negotiating stance. Such flexibility often prompts the U.S. to raise its demands even higher. For future negotiations to succeed, Iran must demonstrate resolve and a willingness to defend its interests, relying on its geographical size, military potential, and international alliances, which make it a serious player to be reckoned with.