Consecutive months of decline: What signals does Bitcoin's market structure send during the legislative month of April

Bitcoin is currently at a critical crossroads. If February closes in the red, it will mark the fifth consecutive month of decline, forming the longest downward streak since the 2018–2019 bear market. But what’s noteworthy isn’t just the five-month figure, but how the market has operated throughout this cycle: selling pressure remains steady, with light recoveries that are not long enough to change the overall trend. This indicates a clear defensive stance from capital following the hot rally earlier.

Weak structure but not hopeless

Looking deeper into market history, such prolonged downturns rarely end quietly. They often lay the groundwork for a strong rebound, sometimes lasting months, as capital returns and investor sentiment is relieved. Despite price pressures, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain stable: Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $100 billion in assets, reflecting sustained long-term demand.

Institutional money and accumulation still active

Institutional capital continues to be present, though no longer chasing prices as aggressively as before. Interestingly, wallets holding between 10–100 BTC are still accumulating at low prices, indicating ongoing accumulation behavior among these investors. Recent data also shows BTC has decreased by 23.97% over the past year, but this does not negate the long-term demand from strong investors.

April: Policy turning point

On the policy front, the CLARITY Act for the digital asset market continues to advance in the Senate, with potential passage in April. This could serve as a catalyst, providing regulatory clarity and attracting more institutional capital. When April arrives, if the law passes, the market landscape could change significantly.

From the current perspective, this is a phase where investors might feel the market story is unclear, but the long-term structure is gradually rebuilding. Signals from Bitcoin ETFs, accumulation activity, and upcoming supportive legislation in April suggest that the foundation for a breakout is not entirely fragile.