Brad Garlinghouse estimates increasing probabilities for the approval of the Clarity Act

Brad Garlinghouse, Ripple’s CEO, recently indicated that there is an approximately 80% chance that the Clarification Act could gain legislative approval before the end of April 2026. This assessment marks a significant shift in industry expectations regarding when an explicit regulatory framework for digital assets might be realized in the United States.

The CEO’s statement comes amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty, which has remained one of the main obstacles to widespread crypto adoption. A clear legal framework could be the turning point the industry has been waiting for years.

The legislative outlook according to Brad Garlinghouse and Ripple

Brad Garlinghouse based this outlook on recent political dynamics and the bipartisan support the proposal has gained. According to Ripple’s CEO, the coming months will be decisive, with April 2026 serving as a critical date to determine whether legislation will move forward. This timeframe coincides with a period of increased legislative activity in the U.S. Congress.

The 80% estimate does not guarantee certainty but reflects an informed assessment of current political momentum. It highlights that while the outlook appears more favorable, variables still exist that could alter the course of events.

What the Clarification Act would transform in the ecosystem

If passed, this legislation would have profound structural effects:

Clear classification definitions: Digital assets would receive explicit categories, removing the ambiguity that has characterized recent years.

Reduction of regulatory conflicts: Overlapping authorities between the SEC and CFTC would disappear, creating a unified and predictable regulatory pathway.

Opening institutional capital: Legal barriers that have hindered the massive participation of traditional funds (TradFi) would fall, potentially unlocking significant capital flows.

Why a defined regulatory framework acts as a market catalyst

Historically, periods of regulatory clarity have coincided with sustained accelerations in cryptocurrency adoption. Institutional investors require legal certainty to commit capital at scale. Regulatory uncertainty, on the other hand, has kept many traditional players out of the crypto market.

Brad Garlinghouse’s vision reflects a fundamental reality: regulation is not the enemy of crypto adoption but a potential catalyst when well designed. With the probability of approval increasing, the market could be on the verge of an expansion phase driven not only by technology but also by institutional certainty.

The coming months will remain crucial for monitoring legislative progress and how markets react to each signal regarding the viability of the Clarification Act.