CRCL is once again causing a frenzy of people sharing their gains, but you can't see this when the price is falling.

(First, let me stack some chips—I bought Circle, bottomed out along the way, and only broke even after a pre-market rise today.)
Based on Circle's 26-year financials, I estimated the expected net profit for 26 years.
I found that the situation isn't as optimistic as we think, nor has it reached the so-called turning point.
End of 2025 USDC circulation: 75.3 billion
Assuming a 40% CAGR growth rate given by management
The average circulation in 2026 would be 105.42 billion
Assuming no interest rate cuts in 2026, with reserve yields the same as Q4 = 3.8%
Other revenue guidance from management is between $150 million and $170 million
Then total revenue in 2026 would be between $3.584 billion and $3.604 billion
RLDC management's target is 40%
Gross profit would be between $1.362 billion and $1.442 billion
Management's operating expense guidance is between $929 million and $994 million
Operating profit would be between $369 million and $513 million
Other income is estimated at $50 million
Effective tax rate is calculated at 29% based on 2024 figures
Final net profit for 2026 would be between $297 million and $400 million
Taking the midpoint of $350 million, based on the current pre-market market cap of $17.3 billion
Forward PE ratio is as high as 49
This is a huge gap from many people's intuition and estimated expectations.
After reviewing, I found the issue lies in management's guidance on operating expenses.
Many believe that the high operating expenses in Circle's 2025 fiscal year are due to one-time IPO costs, but in reality, stock compensation is ongoing, and development of Arc and the CPN network, along with depreciation, has increased expenses.
As a result, expenses in 2026 haven't decreased much.
So if USDC circulation in 2026 can only grow by 40%, today's pre-market valuation isn't very attractive.
Of course, management's growth expectations are based on a long-term compound growth rate, and it's possible that the growth trend from 2025 could continue into 2026.
Reasonably speaking, the pre-market price of $73 for Circle already reflects a fair valuation. Friends looking to chase the high today should be cautious.