Gold forecasts today amid geopolitical tensions are rebuilding the bullish momentum

As a new week begins in the precious metals markets, gold outlooks today are turning notably more positive, driven by a complex mix of geopolitical developments and changes in the global monetary policy landscape. After a sharp correction that raised investor concerns in recent weeks, the yellow metal is starting to regain its upward momentum, attempting to establish a stronger price base reflecting a new balance between risks and returns in global markets.

Gold prices have fallen from their historic peak of $5,600 per ounce to levels around $4,525, before experiencing a renewed rise approaching $5,070, indicating real dynamic shifts in investor and institutional behavior. This price movement is not just temporary volatility but a fundamental reassessment of investment portfolios in an environment dominated by uncertainty and safety-seeking.

Geopolitical Factors Reshape the Demand Equation for Gold

Gold is no longer just a traditional investment tool but has become a genuine safe haven amid rising tensions between the United States and Iran. The incident of an Iranian drone being shot down near a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea has revived the geopolitical risk premium, prompting investors to increase hedges by strengthening positions in safe assets.

Demand for gold in such scenarios is linked to more than just direct military risks. Investors are concerned about potential indirect effects such as disruptions to global supply chains, rising shipping and energy costs, and expanding circles of political instability. Despite signals of upcoming nuclear talks between the sides in Oman, markets prefer to price in risk in advance rather than bet on uncertain diplomatic developments.

U.S. Monetary Policy: Uncertainty and Revisions of Expectations

Following President Donald Trump’s approval of the spending agreement, the partial government shutdown has ended, allowing the release of critical economic data that had been on hold. This development marks a pivotal turning point for gold expectations today, as these data could reveal real economic trends.

Markets are currently focused on U.S. private employment data (ADP), which is a key leading indicator for the non-farm payroll report. A strong surprise on the employment side could lead markets to reassess expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, albeit in a limited manner.

The market’s bets have shifted from asking “How many rate cuts?” to “When will they happen?” after waves of overpricing early and rapid cuts. Now, markets are accepting a scenario of slower, more gradual rate reductions, which does not pressure gold as much as it reshapes the demand profile. The precious metal benefits from this ongoing ambiguity, as its appeal depends not only on actual rate cuts but also on the prolonged state of indecision and waiting.

Investor Behavior Shift: From Speculation to Risk Management

Recent developments reveal a qualitative shift in investor strategies. After gold’s sharp rise, an increasing number of traders are reassessing their positions and reducing leverage. This shift is not indicative of pessimism but reflects a growing awareness that the current environment does not favor one-sided bets.

Amid complex geopolitical and monetary factors, gold is increasingly used as a balancing element within investment portfolios rather than solely as a quick-profit tool. This behavior pattern limits the likelihood of sudden mass withdrawals but slows the pace of rallying, as the market transitions into a phase of gradual demand buildup. In the near term, this behavior supports relative stability in gold and makes its movements more linked to overall market risk management.

Technical Analysis: Critical Resistance and Support Levels

Gold has entered a transitional technical phase after a wave of intense corrections. It is currently trading around $5,063, attempting to recover some previous losses and establish a new price base through a corrective rebound. The $5,100 level represents the primary resistance that will determine the market’s ability to regain an upward trend.

Technical Momentum Indicators:

The MACD has shown a noticeable shift after the collapse, with the long red histogram decreasing, indicating a slowdown in bearish momentum. The crossover of the signal line with the MACD near zero suggests the market is beginning to absorb the previous decline, with a short-term corrective rebound possible.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has started rising above 50 after a sharp drop from overbought levels, reflecting renewed buying interest. This early signal hints at the potential for continued recovery, with cautious monitoring of resistance at $5,100.

Key Resistance Levels:

• $5,100 (primary resistance)
• $5,300 (short-term target)
• $5,450 (medium-term target)
• $5,600 (previous historic level)

Major Support Levels:

• $4,900 (first support)
• $4,750 (secondary support)
• $4,600 (broad support zone)

Current Gold Trading Strategy and Outlook

Given current market conditions, it is advisable to wait for gold to stabilize above $5,100 before considering strong buy positions. This level acts as a key pivot point and a critical zone that determines the market’s ability to restore a genuine upward trend.

If prices successfully hold above $5,100 with confirmed strong closes, a rebound toward $5,300–$5,450 could occur during the recovery phase. Conversely, if gold fails to break through this level and declines, monitoring the support zone between $4,900 and $4,750 is recommended for re-evaluating positions or gradually entering at lower levels, as these levels form a solid support base allowing for technical stabilization.

Gold Price Outlook and Institutional Scenarios

Major financial institutions continue to focus on sustained positive momentum for gold over the medium and long term through 2026, despite short-term volatility. JPMorgan has raised its gold price forecast to around $6,300 by the end of 2026, based on ongoing central bank purchases and diversification away from paper assets. The bank expects central bank purchases to reach approximately 800 tons this year, supporting strong structural demand.

UBS projects gold reaching about $6,200 in later periods of 2026, while Deutsche Bank sees prices around $6,000, driven by institutional demand strength and risk hedging against global economic uncertainties. Other analysts suggest scenarios ranging from $4,800 to $5,400, reflecting differences in expectations for the pace of monetary policy implementation and actual demand levels.

Key Factor: Gold outlook today remains heavily influenced by developments in U.S. monetary policy and upcoming economic data. Despite a long-term positive institutional outlook, short-term volatility remains possible due to unforeseen political and economic events. The relative stability gold may experience in the coming weeks will depend on how well the market balances geopolitical risks with increasing monetary clarity.