Ethereum Bull-Bear Showdown (2026-02-25 18:15)

Key conclusion: The battle focuses on the strong resistance zone between $1950 and $2000. Currently, the market exhibits a "bear-controlled, weak rebound" pattern, with a bearish funding outlook. Until a breakout occurs, expect range-bound oscillation, with short positions favored above and long positions below.

I. Overview of the Battle Data

- Price Center: Around $1930, intraday lows followed by rebounds, indicating technical correction.
- Funding Rate: Slightly negative or neutral on major exchanges, no clear sign of long squeeze.
- Positions and Options: Contract holdings slightly increased; put/call ratio at 0.67, with calls not yet dominant.
- Long-Short Ratio: Slightly favoring bears, with short positions concentrated above $1950 and long positions densely packed between $1860-$1900.

II. Core Logic and Defense Lines for Bulls

1. Solid Support: $1860 as the recent lower bound of consolidation, $1800 as strong support, with pledged collateral easing selling pressure.
2. Linked Rebound: Bitcoin stabilization driving the rally; oversold conditions leading to short covering providing short-term momentum.
3. Options Assistance: Slightly more call options held; a volume breakout above $1950 could trigger short stop-loss cascades.

III. Core Logic and Suppression for Bears

1. Macro Pressure: Trump tariffs boosting inflation and rate hike expectations, pressuring risk assets.
2. Clear Resistance: The $1950-$2000 zone has been a dense trading area, repeatedly encountering resistance with insufficient volume to break through.
3. Capital Outflows: Continuous net outflows from crypto ETFs; institutional investors not entering, making sustained rebounds difficult.

IV. Key Levels and Trading Strategies

Camp | Entry Range | Stop Loss | Take Profit
---|---|---|---
Bull | 1880-1900 (stabilization) | Below 1850 | 1940-1950
Bear | 1940-1960 (pressure zone) | Above 2010 | 1900-1860

V. Trigger Signals for the Showdown

- Bulls Win: Volume breakout above $2000, funding rate turns positive, ETF net inflow, target above $2100.
- Bears Win: Drop below $1860, surge in open interest, target $1800-$1750.
- Continuation of Range: Reduced volume in the $1880-$1950 zone, both sides trapped, focus on high sell and low buy.

VI. Risk Warning

- Contract leverage ≤3x; strictly prohibit holding positions overnight.
- Monitor US Nasdaq and ETF fund flows; unexpected news may change the game.